Solana Price Outlook: A 50% SOL Crash Setup is Unfolding in August

Solana’s SOL token risks falling by nearly 50% in August as a large double-top breakdown continues to play out on its weekly chart.

SOL Double Top Targets $36

SOL formed two major peaks near the $240–$252 region between late 2024 and 2025, creating what appears to be a classic double-top reversal pattern.

A double top resembles the letter “M.” It forms when price rallies to a similar resistance level twice but fails to break higher on both attempts. The pattern confirms once price falls below the support separating the two peaks, known as the neckline.

For SOL, that neckline was near $95. The token entered the pattern’s breakdown phase after decisively falling below the level.

Its subsequent rebound also appears to have stalled near $95, suggesting the former support has flipped into resistance and strengthening the bearish setup.

SOL was trading near $72 as of Monday, Aug. 3. Applying the pattern’s percentage-based measured move below the $95 neckline produces a downside target near $36, representing an approximately 50% decline from current prices.

The bearish outlook is further supported by SOL trading below its key weekly exponential moving averages. Its 20-week EMA (green) was near $82, while the 50-week (red), 100-week (purple), and 200-week (blue) EMAs were clustered between roughly $106 and $121.

Meanwhile, SOL’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) was near 38, leaving room for further declines before reaching oversold territory.

A breakdown below the $60–$64 support zone could expose $54 initially, followed by $42 and the double-top target near $36.

Conversely, reclaiming the $82–$95 region would weaken the immediate crash scenario.

Macro Risks May Accelerate SOL’s Decline

SOL’s bearish setup is emerging against an increasingly uncertain macro backdrop.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July, but three policymakers voted for a 25-basis-point hike. The Fed also said inflation remained elevated, partly due to higher energy costs, keeping the possibility of tighter monetary policy alive.

Higher rates and reduced liquidity typically weigh more heavily on volatile crypto assets such as SOL.

Meanwhile, efforts by the United States and Japan to strengthen the yen could trigger an unwind of yen-funded carry trades, forcing leveraged investors to reduce exposure to risk assets.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, Aug. 3, after the US delayed another attack on Iran. However, continued tanker attacks and the possibility of failed negotiations leave room for another oil-price surge, which could revive inflation fears and reinforce SOL’s technical breakdown.