WTI Holds Near Trend Highs
WTI crude oil has been consolidating near trend highs of $106.84 for approximately five days. That high was a little shy of a potential resistance zone ranging from around $107.47 to $109.74, derived from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline and a lower swing high from May, respectively. On Thursday, crude oil weakened and hit a four-day low of $99.22 before buyers took back control intraday, leading to a bounce. The decline also resulted in a successful test of the previous resistance level near $99.29, defined by a June lower swing high. The ability to recover after briefly trading below that level shows that short-term strength is being retained. Furthermore, Thursday’s low confirmed support at the 10-day moving average, now near $99.32.
$99.30 Support Keeps Upside Intact
While short-term strength is retained, there remains the potential for the current advance to continue toward the potential resistance zone noted above. Overall, if crude oil stays above the 10-day moving average, the short-term bias remains to the upside, while a sustained decline below that average would show weakening and could lead to lower prices. A short-term bullish signal would be triggered on a rally above Thursday’s high of $102.50, which may also complete a bullish hammer candlestick pattern that is forming currently. However, that bullish signal would occur inside a consolidation range, increasing the risk of limited follow-through.
33% Advance Raises Exhaustion Risk
At the same time, the current advance from the recent swing low of $80.34 to this week’s high has reached approximately 33%, suggesting that crude oil may begin to show more concrete signs of short-term exhaustion. If Thursday’s low fails as support, the next lower potential support zone is near the prior high of $94.34, followed closely by the rising 20-day moving average. Of course, that would also confirm a break below the 10-day moving average, shifting the short-term technical picture toward weakening.
Next Signal Comes at $102.50
For now, however, Thursday’s successful support test keeps the upside scenario intact, leaving a move back above $102.50 as the next short-term confirmation of strength and potentially bringing the $107.47-$109.74 resistance zone back into focus.