Bumble Shares Jump Over 20% on Strong Revenue Outlook

Shares of online dating company Bumble surged over 20% in pre-market trading on Wednesday after the company exceeded profit estimates in the holiday quarter and forecasts solid growth for this year.

On Tuesday, the Austin, Texas-based company reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share, beating market expectations for breakeven results. The company said its revenue jumped over 25% to $208.2 million from a year earlier. However, that missed the consensus of $209.5 million. The diluted loss per share came in at $0.08, worse compared to a loss per share of $0.01 seen a year ago.

The company forecasts total revenue in the range of $207-$210 million in the first quarter of this year and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $47-$49 million. For the full year, it expects total revenue between $934-$944 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.5%-27%.

“We believe the biggest positive surprise was FY22 Bumble App revenue guidance of 34-36% growth. With the stock down 52% YTD and trading at a 30% discount to MTCH, we believe the recent pullback offers a more attractive opportunity. Buy, $36 PT,” noted Brent Thill, equity analyst at Jefferies.

Bumble stock rose over 21% to $20.1 in pre-market trading on Wednesday. However, the stock slumped over 50% so far this year.

Analyst Comments

“Bumble (BMBL) reported in-line rev, with EBITDA 2% above cons., driven by better gross margins. 1Q/FY22 rev guide were above our estimates, with Bumble app seeing strong growth, especially in international markets; BMBL also expects a $20MM rev impact in ’22 from the Ukraine conflict. Stock is +19% AH, while still down sharply YTD. We tweaked ’22-’27 est. & our Price Target goes to $38 vs. $36 prior; maintain Outperform,” noted John Blackledge, equity analyst at Cowen.

Bumble Stock Price Forecast

Eleven analysts who offered stock ratings for Bumble in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $41.09 with a high forecast of $55.00 and a low forecast of $21.00.

The average price target represents a 146.64% change from the last price of $16.66. Of those 11 analysts, seven rated “Buy”, four rated “Hold”, while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price to $49 with a high of $85 under a bull scenario and $24 under the worst-case scenario. The investment bank gave an “Equal-weight” rating on the online dating company’s stock.

“Bumble (BMBL) has become a formidable #2 global online dating player in early innings of international expansion. While we remain bullish on online dating, we are EW given 1) valuation, 2) our preference for a portfolio vs. single brand approach, and 3) less confidence in the ‘global brand’ bull case. BMBL EBITDA margin is likely capped at 33-34% long-term vs. our expectation that MTCH can achieve high-40s,” noted Lauren Schenk, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

Several analysts have also updated their stock outlook. Raymond James lowered the price objective to $29 from $48. Cowen and company lifted the price target to $38 from $36. JPMorgan cut the target price to $41 from $50. RBC lowered the target price to $35 from $55.

However, technical analysis suggests it is good to sell as 100-day Moving Average and 100-200-day MACD Oscillator shows a strong selling opportunity.

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