ConocoPhillips Enters Key Buy Zone Following 2025 Correction

ConocoPhillips (COP) earnings dropped in Q2 2025 due to weaker oil prices. Despite this, the company delivered strong production and solid cash flow. Following the sharp correction in 2024 and 2025, the stock price is approaching a critical juncture in 2025, which presents a strong long-term entry point for investors. This article presents fundamental and technical analysis to help investors understand the next move for the stock and identify levels for long-term investment.

Financial Performance for ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips reported earnings of $2.0 billion in Q2 2025, down from $2.3 billion in Q2 2024. The decline in earnings reflected lower commodity prices and higher costs. The chart below shows that the quarterly net income has moderated from recent highs but remains near its historical average.

Moreover, the revenue for Q2 2025 was $13.98 billion, showing relative stability despite market headwinds. While earnings have declined from the 2022–2023 peak levels, the current figures remain well above the pandemic-era lows, demonstrating the company’s ability to generate consistent cash flow.

Moreover, the production reached 2,391 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), up 446 MBOED year-over-year. The higher production volumes did not offset the impact of lower prices. On the other hand, the operating costs and depreciation also increased, contributing to weaker profitability.

Despite this, ConocoPhillips continued to generate strong cash. The operating cash flow was $3.5 billion, and $4.7 billion when excluding working capital changes. The company also received $0.7 billion from asset sales, including those of Ursa and its associated assets.

On the other hand, the capital spending for the quarter was $3.3 billion. The company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders, $1.2 billion through share repurchases and $1.0 billion in dividends. It also retired $0.2 billion in debt and ended the quarter with $5.7 billion in cash and $1.1 billion in long-term investments.

Strategic Expansion and Long-Term Growth Drivers

ConocoPhillips has completed its integration with Marathon Oil and expects to achieve over $2 billion in synergies and one-time benefits. Moreover, the company has signed a 20-year deal to purchase 4 MTPA of LNG from Sempra’s Port Arthur Phase 2 project in Texas.

This agreement strengthens its global LNG strategy and expands its role as a major offtaker. The deal ensures long-term supply security and supports its goal of meeting growing global energy demand. It also deepens the company’s partnership with Sempra and enhances its position in the US LNG export market. This move could boost future cash flows and support long-term stock performance.

How Falling Oil Prices Are Shaping ConocoPhillips’ Outlook

Oil prices remain highly volatile in 2025 due to OPEC+ supply increases, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these fluctuations, ConocoPhillips benefits from its low-cost production model, with break-even costs well below current market prices. This allows the company to sustain profitability even when oil prices decline.

However, weaker oil prices weighed on COP’s earnings in Q2, as lower realised prices in the mid-$40s per barrel offset the gains from the increase in output. The company’s strong production helped reduce the impact, but low oil prices still hurt its performance.

The monthly chart for WTI crude oil indicates that prices continue to follow a strong bearish trend. The price has broken below the symmetrical triangle that had formed since 2022. This breakout has triggered bearish pressure, initiating downward momentum. The uncertainty in the oil market creates volatility in the ConocoPhillips stock price.

Historical Trends Point to Strong Upside for ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips Enters Key Buy Zone After Long-Term Correction

The long-term outlook for ConocoPhillips remains bullish, despite the ongoing correction seen in 2024 and 2025. The yearly chart reveals that prices have been trending within a broader bullish structure since the 1970s. The first major correction occurred in 2008, during the financial crisis, which led to a bottom at $26.30 in 2009. After this decline, the stock consolidated within a strong range between $39 and $72.

Notably, sharp wicks appeared on the yearly candles in 2009, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020. These long lower wicks marked key turning points, signalling buying interest during periods of market weakness. These wick formations supported the continuation of the long-term uptrend. The 2020 candle, in particular, served as a strong buy signal, eventually driving prices to an all-time high of $138.49 in 2022.

Following that peak, ConocoPhillips entered a correction phase, pulling back toward the long-term buy zone near $72. In 2025, the stock is consolidating within this key area. This retracement suggests the formation of a new buy signal. As the correction matures, the broader uptrend remains intact, positioning ConocoPhillips for potential gains in the years ahead.

Technical Chart Patterns Suggest ConocoPhillips Is Nearing a Bullish Turn

It is interesting to observe that ConocoPhillips has also formed a long wick candle on the quarterly chart. The lows in 2009, 2016, and 2020 produced strong reversal candles, marking the beginning of significant price recoveries. Currently, the stock has retraced back to the $80 region, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the 2020 bull market lows.

Notably, a long wick candle appeared again in Q2 2025, suggesting that buying pressure is building around this level. Despite this buying pressure, the correction remains active within the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone, between $66 and $80. Therefore, any pullback within this range is considered a strong buying opportunity.

ConocoPhillips Eyes Breakout After Sharp Correction and Strong Base Formation

To further understand the bullish dynamics in ConocoPhillips, the monthly chart below highlights key price zones where strong corrections began. It is observed that major corrections in 2008–2009 started from the high of $39.69 and bottomed in March 2009 at $14.49. Similarly, another significant correction began in July 2014 from the $60.55 region and found a bottom in February 2016 at $23.07.

The monthly chart also shows RSI indicators, which highlight extremely overbought conditions before each correction. Interestingly, RSI was extremely overbought in late 2022. A double top pattern formed at $126.32 in November 2022 and $130.05 in April 2024, followed by bearish hammer candles on the monthly chart.

After forming this double top, the stock corrected sharply and reached $78.56 in April 2025. This low aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $80. Therefore, this zone is considered a strong buy area. A rebound from this region could signal the beginning of the next bullish leg in ConocoPhillips.

The weekly chart for ConocoPhillips also shows that the stock is forming a strong bullish pattern. The price established a double bottom in 2020 and rallied to a record high in 2022. Since 2024, the stock has been trading within a descending channel and is now approaching resistance near the $99 level.

A breakout above $99 could push the price toward the $105 region. A sustained move above $105 would confirm a breakout from the descending channel and potentially target the $118 level. If the stock breaks above the $135 region, it would signal a strong bullish continuation, opening the path toward new record highs.

Key Risks for ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips faces several risks in the current market environment. The persistent weakness in oil prices remains the biggest concern. Although ConocoPhillips maintains a low break-even cost, sustained low prices could pressure its margins and cash flows. The company’s Q2 earnings already reflect the negative impact of lower realised prices, despite stronger output.

In addition, rising political tensions and tariff disputes highlight further risks. The shift in policies in key regions could disrupt trade flows and energy pricing. ConocoPhillips also faces operational risks from project delays, regulatory changes, and asset divestitures. Any disruption in its LNG expansion plans may weigh on investor confidence. While the long-term outlook remains strong, these near-term uncertainties could limit the stock’s upside and trigger short-term volatility.

ConocoPhillips Approaches Buy Zone in 2025

ConocoPhillips remains financially strong despite recent pressure on its earnings. The company’s high production volumes, low-cost structure, and disciplined capital strategy provide a solid foundation. In addition, the integration with Marathon Oil and the expansion of its LNG portfolio support long-term growth. Furthermore, strong cash flow and consistent shareholder returns continue to enhance its overall appeal.

From a technical perspective, the stock price has approached the key support level of $80 in 2025, which is considered a buy zone due to its strategic importance. However, a break below $80 may trigger a deeper correction toward the $66 level.

The strong rebound from $78 in 2025 suggests that the price is attempting to form a bottom around this region. A breakout above $118 will confirm a bullish reversal. Therefore, investors can consider buying the stock near $80 and adding more positions if the price drops further toward the $66 zone.