EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY at $104.85; Focus on PMI Figures

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Updated: Jun 2, 2024, 10:10 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

French Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.7, while Services PMI fell to 49.4.
German Flash PMIs expected at 43.4 for Manufacturing, 53.5 for Services.
US data includes Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales, and PMIs impacting the Dollar Index.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY at $104.85; Focus on PMI Figures

Market Overview

During the early European session, French Flash PMIs affected the EUR/USD pair. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.7 from 45.8, suggesting a slight improvement in the sector, while the Services PMI fell to 49.4 from 51.8, indicating slower growth.

Events Ahead

The upcoming German Flash PMIs, with Manufacturing expected at 43.4 and Services at 53.5, will provide insight into Germany’s economic health. The overall Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 46.2, and Services PMI at 53.6. Positive results could strengthen the euro, while weaker data could pressure it lower.

In the UK, the Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.5, and the Services PMI at 54.7. These figures will influence GBP/USD, with stronger data likely boosting the pound.

In the US, Unemployment Claims are projected at 220K, New Home Sales at 677K, and the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 50.0 and 51.2, respectively. These data points will affect the Dollar Index; stronger-than-expected figures could bolster the dollar, while weaker data could weaken it.

Additionally, speeches from MPC Member Pill and FOMC Member Bostic, along with G7 meetings, will offer further market direction.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is trading at $104.867, down 0.04%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is at $104.771. Immediate resistance levels are at $104.920, $105.165, and $105.458. Key support levels are $104.610, $104.410, and $104.258.

The 50 EMA stands at $104.790, and the 200 EMA is at $105.024, indicating a bearish trend as the price is below both EMAs. The outlook is bearish below $104.771.

A break above this level could boost bullish momentum. Conversely, maintaining below this pivot may continue to apply downward pressure on the index.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD is trading at $1.08279, up 0.05%. The 4-hour chart shows a pivot point at $1.08307. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.08473, $1.08639, and $1.08829. Key support levels are $1.08050, $1.07857, and $1.07667.

The 50 EMA is at $1.08448, and the 200 EMA is at $1.08057, indicating mixed signals. The outlook remains bearish below $1.08307, but a break above this level could enhance bullish momentum.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: TradingView

GBP/USD is trading at $1.27245, up 0.07%. The 4-hour chart shows a pivot point at $1.27166. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.27502, $1.27803, and $1.28138. Key support levels are $1.26868, $1.26558, and $1.26277.

The 50 EMA stands at $1.26655, and the 200 EMA is at $1.25904, indicating a bullish trend as the price remains above these averages. The outlook is bullish above the pivot point of $1.27166, but a break below this level could drive a sharp selling trend.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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