Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Drops to $83, Ceasefire Eases Tensions

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Updated: Apr 30, 2024, 11:43 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Oil prices dip slightly as Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks lower regional tensions.
Natural Gas climbs to $2.002, testing key resistance levels amid bullish trends.
Persistent inflation and a strong U.S. dollar likely to dampen oil demand.

Market Overview

In Tuesday’s early trade, oil prices modestly fell as progress in Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks eased tensions in the Middle East, potentially impacting the natural gas and oil forecast. The ceasefire negotiations, alongside continuous regional conflicts and the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy review, may influence oil price forecasts.

Persistent inflation and a stronger U.S. dollar could suppress oil demand, while geopolitical risks in key areas like the Suez Canal may underpin prices with potential supply disruptions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) has seen a notable uptick, currently priced at $2.002, a 2.61% increase. Positioned just above its pivot point of $1.99, NG is poised to either extend its gains or face resistance. The immediate resistance levels are at $2.06, $2.13, and $2.21, which NG must surpass to continue its upward trajectory. Conversely, support levels lie at $1.92, $1.84, and $1.75, which could provide fallback positions should prices retreat.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands right at the pivot point of $1.99, aligning with the 200-Day EMA at $1.94, suggesting a fragile equilibrium in prices. Stability or a rise above $1.99 could signal a stronger bullish trend for NG.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

In today’s market, USOIL has declined by 0.61%, trading at $83.15. The oil is teetering just below its pivot point at $83.20, indicating a possible inflection in market direction. Resistance levels are staged at $84.85, $86.14, and $87.59, which could cap upward movements. Conversely, support levels are identified at $81.93, $80.75, and $79.35, where dips might find a floor.

Technical indicators show the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $83.28 and the 200-Day EMA at $82.64, suggesting a slight bullish bias in a longer-term view. However, remaining below $83.20 could sustain a bearish outlook, whereas surpassing this level might shift momentum to the upside.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

As of April 30, UKOIL is trading at $87.49, marking a decline of 0.68%. The commodity is slightly below its pivot point of $87.59, suggesting a potential shift in market direction. Resistance levels are established at $89.27 and $90.86, with an erroneously listed $82.15 suggesting a need for adjustment.

On the support side, levels are set at $86.16, $84.63, and $83.17, which may stabilize price drops. Technical analysis shows the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $87.98 and the 200-Day EMA at $87.19, indicating a near-term bearish trend but potential for reversal if prices stabilize or ascend past the pivot point of $87.59.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.