Ripple (XRP) Price Forecast: Whales React to SEC Fine with $180M Move

Ibrahim Ajibade
Updated: Apr 7, 2024, 08:27 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • XRP price retested the $0.60 area in the early hours of April 7, but an unusual trend observed among whale investors could slow down the recovery phase
  • Since the SEC slammed a $2 billion fine on Ripple in late-March, whales have flooded the markets with over $170 million worth of XRP coins.
  • The Bollinger band indicator shows the bulls are still some distance away from reclaiming the 20-day SMA territory.
XRP price forecast

XRP price made a brazen attempt at reclaiming the $0.60 territory on April 7 but an unusual selling trend observed among whale investors threatens to scuttle the recovery mission.

With Ripple battling yet another fine from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is XRP on the brink of another reversal in the week ahead?

Whales Enter $180M Selling Spree after SEC Fined Ripple $2 billion for Misconduct

Ripple-backed XRP has faced intense price volatility over the past week amid long-running legal battles with regulators. On-chain data trends provide insights into the main bearish catalysts, and how XRP prices could react in the days ahead.

On March 25, Ripple CEO, Brad Garlinghouse revealed that the team is expecting the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is seeking to impose a $1.95 billion on Ripple. This came after the agency prevailed on some of its claims about Ripple’s illegal sale of securities through directly selling its XRP Coin to institutional investors.

The SEC filed officially filed the motion under seal in a US District court on Friday, sending the XRP community into a speculation frenzy, as traders looked to front-run the potential impact of the fines.

Ripple CEO assured the community that the company is well-positioned to pay the fines. But looking beyond the headlines, on-chain data shows that whale investors and corporate entities holding at least 1 million XRP (~$580,000) did not share that optimism.

The Santiment chart below tracks whale investors’ wallet balances in real-time, providing insights into their current sentiment and trading activity.

Ripple (XRP) Whales Wallet Balances vs. Price | Source: Santiment 
Ripple (XRP) Whales Wallet Balances vs. Price | Source: Santiment

After the SEC officially filed the $2 billion fine motion on Friday, March 29, XRP whale investors instantly entered a selling spree. As seen in the chart above, they have offloaded over 290 million coins between March 29 and April 3, cutting their balances down to a 30-day low of 44.9 billion at the time of writing.

Valued at the current prices of $0.59, the recently traded 290 million XRP coins are worth approximately $180 million. Flooding the markets with such a large volume of coins is likely to put downward pressure on prices. Unsurprisingly, XRP price has tumbled 13% since the whales sell-off began in March 29.

Strategic retail swing traders may be unwilling to go against deep-pocketed whales with over 44.9 billion XRP holdings. If the small-hold retail traders take on a bearish positions as well, XRP price could struggle to enter a major rebound phase in the days ahead.

XRP price forecast: $0.60 Consolidation In The Week ahead?

The downward pressure from whale investors $180 million sell-off will likely see XRP price consolidate around the $0.60 area in the days ahead, rather than stage a decisive breakout above $0.70.

The Bollinger band technical indicator affirms this stance. It shows that after a 6% recovery between April 3 and April 7, the bulls are still some distance away from reclaiming the 20-day SMA price mark at $0.61, and regaining foothold in the market.

Without scaling that critical resistance sell-wall, XRP price will likely continue to consolidate around $0.60 in the near-term as predicted.

Ripple (XRP) Price Forecast | April 2024 | Source: TradingView
Ripple (XRP) Price Forecast | April 2024 | Source: TradingView

On the flip side, the bulls could regain momentum in the markets if XRP price break above the $0.62 area. Although, this currently seems unlikely, considering the dominant selling preference among the deep-pocketed whale investors.


About the Author

Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.

Did you find this article useful?