XRP Set to Surge After Technical Breakout Amid Macro and Fundamental Strength

XRP is gaining attention as fundamental and technical drivers indicate a potential long-term rally. Ripple’s utility in cross-border payments continues to improve, supported by bank partnerships and growing global adoption. On the other hand, macroeconomic conditions and rising crypto inflows add to the bullish setup. Meanwhile, the upcoming decision on an XRP ETF could attract billions in institutional investment. This article presents a fundamental and technical analysis of XRP, along with key risks, to explore the next potential move in its price.

Macroeconomic and Fundamental Drivers Behind XRP’s Bullish Setup

How Fed Policy and ETF Prospects Could Propel XRP Growth

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September. This expectation has triggered a selloff in U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar Index. As a result, investors are rotating out of the dollar and into alternative assets like gold (XAUUSD) and cryptocurrencies.

Lower interest rates tend to benefit crypto, as declining yields on safe assets push investors to seek better returns elsewhere. Consequently, expectations of a rate cut may drive capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market, including XRP.

Moreover, the pending SEC decision on XRP ETFs is another key catalyst that could drive growth in XRP. The odds currently favour approval, with estimates around 95%, which could bring billions into the XRP market.

JPMorgan projects $4 to $8 billion in inflows within the first year, while some experts suggest up to $5 billion could flow in during the first month alone. ETF approval would also validate XRP in the eyes of mainstream investors, boosting its legitimacy and attracting greater retail interest.

RippleNet and XRP’s Expanding Role in Global Payments

XRP is not like the speculative tokens. Ripple designed it to speed up and cut the cost of cross-border payments. XRP operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and powers RippleNet, a payment network that processes international transactions in seconds.

Although RippleNet is still in its early adoption phase with just over 300 users compared to SWIFT’s 11,500, it has already secured partnerships with major banks like Bank of America, Santander, and American Express. However, many institutions using RippleNet have not yet adopted XRP for settlement, which leaves room for future growth as adoption deepens.

As global cross-border payments are expected to double to $414 trillion by 2034, XRP is well-positioned to benefit from financial institutions seeking faster and cheaper alternatives to SWIFT.

Moreover, a recent partnership further reinforces Ripple’s growing role in traditional finance. Ripple signed an agreement with Spanish banking giant BBVA to provide institutional-grade custody technology for its new crypto-asset trading and custody service in Spain.

BBVA will use Ripple Custody to manage tokenised assets, including Bitcoin and Ether. This move reflects the growing comfort among European banks in offering digital asset services under the MiCA regulatory framework.

Ripple’s existing experience, regulatory licenses, and secure infrastructure position it as a trusted technology provider for institutions. As more banks adopt Ripple’s tools, the likelihood of XRP integration for settlements could increase. This will further boost demand and long-term value.

Regulatory Clarity Boosts Confidence in XRP Adoption

The biggest hurdle for Ripple has been regulatory uncertainty. On 8 August, the U.S. SEC officially ended its years-long investigation into Ripple, marking a turning point in the company’s relationship with regulators.

At the same time, lawmakers are beginning to establish a more crypto-friendly framework. Instead of stifling innovation, the new rules aim to provide clarity and reduce institutional hesitation. As these regulatory roadblocks clear, XRP could finally gain meaningful traction among large financial institutions.

Examining the XRP Price Action and Technical Breakout

July 2024 Outlook: Triangle Formation Signalled Major XRP Breakout

The technical outlook for XRP was presented in July 2024, highlighting its volatility and the formation of a long-term triangle pattern that pointed to a potential breakout. As shown in the chart below, historical surges in 2018, 2021, and 2023 were driven by a combination of investor enthusiasm, regulatory developments, and expanding institutional partnerships. As per expectations, XRP broke above the triangle’s apex and triggered a sharp upward move in price.

What is Next after the XRP Breakout from $0.66?

It is observed from the chart below that XRP broke out from the apex of its long-term triangle pattern in September 2024. However, the decisive breakout above the pivotal resistance at $0.66 occurred in November 2024. During the period from September to November, prices compressed within a tight range before surging higher.

This breakout triggered a strong rally, pushing XRP to a new record high of $3.40 in January 2025. A sharp correction followed, forming a significant bottom at $1.61 in April 2025. This pullback set the stage for another upward move, with prices reaching a fresh high of $3.66 in July 2025.

The breakout in 2024 was different from those in 2018, 2021, and 2023, which were followed by steep corrections after reaching record levels. On the other hand, the 2024 breakout shows signs of sustained bullish momentum that continues to drive positive price action in XRP.

This is clearly reflected on the monthly chart, where the candles for January, April, and July 2025 have not shown the sharp pullbacks seen in previous cycles. This suggests that the current move is a structural breakout rather than a speculative spike, and that XRP is likely entering a new bullish phase.

The technical basis for the price explosion in 2024 lies in the long period of consolidation at the triangle’s apex, where XRP traded between $0.38 and $0.70. This tight range created significant price compression, and such setups precede explosive moves. The breakout from this zone confirms a shift in market structure, pointing to the potential for continued upward momentum in XRP.

Weekly Chart: Key Support at $1.97 Holds as Rally Resumes

To further understand the bullish price action in XRP, the weekly chart below highlights a clear triangle pattern. The price has decisively broken above the pivotal level of $0.66. The surge from $0.66 to the record high occurred within just four weeks of trading, with XRP reaching new highs in July 2025.

After hitting a peak at $3.40, XRP experienced a correction amid high volatility, pulling back toward a key support zone. The key support zone for XRP now remains the April 2021 highs at $1.97 level, which has previously served as the yearly resistance of 2021.

Investors may consider this area as a potential buying zone, anticipating further upside in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, the RSI has stabilised above the midline, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact and further gains are possible.

Daily and 4-Hour Charts Show Bullish Cup Pattern Forming

The daily chart for XRP shows that the consolidation between January 2025 and April 2025 has formed a cup pattern, a strong bullish formation that signals further upside. Currently, prices are consolidating within the 50 and 200-Day SMA between the $2.50 and $3.00 range, with a clear bullish bias.

The recent positive consolidation seen in August suggests that XRP is preparing to move higher and potentially mark new highs in the coming weeks. However, to maintain this bullish outlook, XRP must hold above the 200-day SMA, which currently stands at $2.50.

On the other hand, the 4-hour chart for XRP also shows a short-term bullish outlook. This price action is supported by the formation of a cup pattern with a neckline at $2.87. Therefore, the $2.50 to $2.87 zone serves as a strong support band, and a breakout above $3.08 would likely trigger a move toward the $3.38 region. This structural bullish pattern suggests that the next significant move for XRP is likely to be to the upside.

Risks to XRP’s Growth: Regulation, Market Sentiment, and Hype

XRP still faces heavy volatility due to shifting market sentiment and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. A delay or rejection of the XRP ETF approval could significantly dampen investor confidence. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve shifts away from expected rate cuts, crypto inflows could reverse sharply. XRP’s price is also highly sensitive to movements in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. A general downturn in risk assets or another crypto-specific shock could trigger steep corrections in XRP, regardless of strong fundamentals.

Despite recent legal victories, Ripple’s regulatory status remains unresolved. The SEC could still impose restrictions on XRP sales or future activities, particularly regarding institutional use. Additionally, although RippleNet has partnered with major banks, most have not adopted XRP for settlement. If real-world adoption remains slow or regulatory clarity deteriorates, XRP’s utility narrative may weaken. These risks could cap long-term upside and trigger prolonged consolidation or renewed selling pressure.

On the other hand, the speculative rumours continue to fuel false expectations around XRP. A recent post on X claimed Apple would announce a $1.5 billion XRP purchase, sparking excitement across social media. However, prominent XRP influencers quickly dismissed the claim as baseless. Apple has historically avoided crypto and only lifted its digital asset restrictions this year. There is no evidence that Apple plans to hold XRP over more established assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum. These hype-driven narratives can mislead retail investors, increase volatility, and distort the true value of XRP.

Bottom Line: Bullish Setup Supported by Macro, Fundamentals, and Technicals

A favourable macro backdrop, strong institutional partnerships, and a confirmed technical breakout support XRP’s surge. The potential approval of an XRP ETF and a more accommodative Fed policy could serve as near-term growth catalysts. Meanwhile, Ripple’s real-world utility in cross-border payments continues to strengthen, driven by expanding bank partnerships and growing adoption of Ripple Custody.

From a technical perspective, the breakout in XRP above $0.66 does not appear to be a speculative move. The surge looks stable and signals further upside potential. Since the price has established strong support around the buy zone at $1.96, XRP is likely to trade higher in the coming months. The next target remains $5, and investors can consider accumulating XRP near the $1.97 level to position for further gains.