Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast: Trade War, Fed Bets, and ETF Inflows Set the Tone for Bulls

Full-Blown US-China Trade War Risk Triggers Sell-Off

Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below $110,000 as markets reacted to President Trump’s retaliation against Beijing’s restrictions on rare earth mineral exports.

President Trump declared a trade war against China on Friday, October 10, stating:

“Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying.”

In addition, the US President announced export controls on critical software, escalating fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China.

BTC tumbled to a Friday session low of $107,486 before closing at $114,559, down 5.82% for the day. BTC swiftly reclaimed the $110,000 handle on Friday, but momentum faded as the token slipped 1.82% on Saturday, October 11, closing at $112,469. A three-day losing streak leaves BTC down 8.6% for the week.

US BTC-spot ETF inflows Cushion Downside

Trade developments and a political stalemate failed to impact demand for spot ETFs. The US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $2.72 billion in the reporting week ending Friday, October 10, taking October inflows to $4.29 billion. According to Farside Investors:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported net inflows of $2.63 billion.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows of $88.9 million.
• Meanwhile, Grayscale BTC ETF (GBTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had combined net outflows of $105.1 million.

Crucially, robust inflows for the second consecutive week prevented a BTC slump below the psychological $100,000 level.

The Kobeissi Letter commented on Friday’s sell-off, stating:

“Volume was so strong that it led to the first EVER $20,000 candlestick in Bitcoin, a -$380 BILLION drop in market cap, before a V-shaped bottom as shorts were closed. Not only was this the largest liquidation ever, it was 9 TIMES the previous record. This event will be referenced for years to come.”

Notably, US BTC-spot ETF issuers reported total net outflows of $4.5 million, which is modest considering the trends in BTC price.

Market bets on multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter continued to boost demand for BTC-spot ETFs. However, the absence of key US economic data and the prolonged US government shutdown weighed on broader sentiment.

Key Week Ahead: US Lawmakers, Labor Market Data, and the Fed in Focus

The coming week could be pivotal for BTC and US BTC-spot ETF flows. US lawmakers return from the long weekend on Tuesday, October 14. A Senate vote on a stopgap funding bill could be a key catalyst for BTC price direction after this week’s pullback. BTC could rebound if the Senate passes a stopgap funding bill. On the other hand, a continued shutdown may expose BTC to further losses.

Traders should also monitor US-China trade developments as the APEC Summit looms. Tit-for-tat retaliatory measures from China and the US would likely drag BTC lower. Conversely, a de-escalation may lift sentiment.

Bitcoin’s sell-off also weighed on Ethereum (ETH), triggering a sharp correction.

ETH Gives Up $4,000 Amid Broad-Based Crypto Sell-Off

While BTC held above the key $100,000 psychological level, ETH dropped below $4,000. ETH declined 2.21% on Saturday, October 11, following the previous day’s 12.16% plunge to close at $3,752.

Despite Saturday’s loss, ETH recovered from Friday’s low of $3,511, bolstered by ETH-spot ETF inflows of $488.2 million in the reporting week ending October 10.

Explore our ETF flow deep-dive to see which tokens are winning the most capital.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Several key events will drive BTC’s near-term outlook:

• US-China trade developments.
• Senate votes on stopgap funding bill.
• US economic data.
• FOMC members’ speeches.
• Legislative developments: the Market Structure Bill’s passage on Capitol Hill.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: A government reopening, dovish Fed signals, trade de-escalation, and sustained ETF inflows could drive BTC toward $125,761.
• Bearish Scenario: A prolonged shutdown, trade escalation, stagflation fears, hawkish Fed tone, or ETF outflows could pressure BTC toward $100,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs are signaling bearish near-term but bullish longer-term momentum.

• Upside Target: A breakout above $115,000 could bring the 50-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA could pave the way toward the record high of $125,761.
• On the downside, a drop below $110,000 could expose the 200-day EMA. If breached, $100,000 would be the next key psychological support level.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum ETF Outlook and Demand

Turning to Ethereum (ETH), the token trades below the 50-day but above the 200-day EMAs, indicating a bearish near-term bias.

• Upside Target: A break above $4,085 resistance level could enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA may pave the way to the record high of $4,958.
• On the downside, a drop below the 200-day EMA would likely expose the $3,287 support level. If breached, $3,000 would be the next key psychological support level.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by monitoring macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.