Bitcoin (BTC) Rises as ETF Inflows Offset Trade War and Fed Uncertainty

Bitcoin Eyes Breakout as Trade War Fears Swirl

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 0.19% on Saturday, July 5, partially reversing Friday’s 1.42% loss to close at $108,303.

US trade developments and waning Fed rate cut bets overshadowed US BTC-spot ETF flow trends, pegging BTC back from its all-time high of $111,917.

President Trump’s July 9 Trade Deadline Looms

US President Trump’s 90-day pause on Liberation Tariffs ends on July 9, threatening a global trade war. The EU and Japan face 50% and 35% tariffs if trade agreements are not inked by July 9, with China exposed to levies despite an easing of export restrictions.

Higher tariffs could push US import prices higher, potentially driving inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Powell recently maintained a wait-and-see stance on monetary policy amid tariff uncertainties and inflation concerns.

Trade developments have influenced BTC’s price trajectory in 2025. Notably, BTC fell from $105,000 levels to an April low of $74,624 on tariff hikes before striking May’s record high on the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs.

Progress toward US trade deals with key trading partners could be crucial for BTC’s near-term price outlook.

US BTC-Spot ETF Inflows Offer Support Amid Trade Uncertainty

Despite trade uncertainties, US BTC-spot ETF flow trends remain pivotal. Last week, ETF issuers reported net inflows of $769.5 million despite outflows of $342.2 million on July 1. An upbeat US Jobs Report eased fears of a US recession, boosting demand for BTC-spot ETFs. Net inflows of $601.8 million on July 3 sent BTC to a session high of $110,583.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

Several macro and market factors will shape BTC’s near-term outlook:

• Trade developments.
• Legislative updates, the Senate Banking Committees’ Market Structure hearing.
• The upcoming US economic data and Fed monetary policy signals.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, dovish Fed cues, bipartisan support for crypto bills, upbeat US economic data, and ETF inflows may send BTC toward $111,917.
• Bearish Scenario: Renewed trade tensions, hawkish Fed rhetoric, legislative setbacks, US recession risk, or ETF outflows could push BTC toward $100,000.

For ongoing insights into macro trends, regulation, and ETF data, follow our analysis here.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bullish signals.

• Upside Target: A breakout above the July 3 high of $110,583 could pave the way to the record high of $111,917. A sustained move through $111,917 may enable the bulls to target $115,000.
• On the downside, a drop below $105,000 and the 50-day EMA could bring sub-$100,000 levels into play. Increased selling pressure may expose the 200-day EMA.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.66 suggests BTC could rise to the record high of $111,917 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Trails as BTC Dominates Flows

Turning to ethereum (ETH), ETH remains above the 200-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating a bullish bias. Improved risk sentiment drove ETH above the EMAs on July 2.

• Upside target: A breakout above the July 3 high of $2,636 could open the door to retesting the June high of $2,879. A sustained move through $2,879 could bring the $2,815 resistance level into play.
• On the downside, a drop below the 200-day and 50-day EMAs may enable the bears to target the $2,308 support level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.89 suggests ETH could climb to the June high of $2,879 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.