Can Bitcoin Rebound Sustain in October: These 3 BTC Indicators Have An Answer

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded above $115,000 after a brutal sell-off triggered by US–China trade tensions and marketwide liquidations exceeding $20 billion over the weekend.

Yet, beneath the surface, onchain and technical indicators reveal a mixed picture. Some point to waning bullish momentum, others to an underlying base of long-term holder strength.

BTC’s Net Taker Volume Oscillator Shows Persistent Bearish Pressure

Bitcoin’s net taker volume oscillator, a key onchain sentiment gauge, has plunged to around -4%, signaling that bearish pressure still dominates the market.

The metric, which measures whether aggressive buyers (takers) or sellers control futures markets, is now at one of its lowest levels of 2025, suggesting that sell-side momentum remains intense.

Historically, such extreme negative readings have preceded short-term market bottoms, but not without a final leg lower as leveraged long positions get flushed out.

The previous dips to this level, notably in April and July, were followed by sharp volatility before BTC eventually recovered.

If selling persists, Bitcoin could retest the $105,000–$110,000 range before finding stronger demand. Until the oscillator stabilizes near neutral territory, buyers remain on the defensive.

BTC Technical Warning: Bearish Divergence Mirrors 2021-2022 Crash Scenario

Bitcoin’s weekly chart now mirrors a bearish divergence similar to the one that preceded the 2021–2022 bear cycle.

While BTC price continues to notch higher highs, the relative strength index (RSI) has been making lower highs since June, a classic signal of waning bullish momentum.

For now, the cryptocurrency remains above its crucial 20-week EMA ($111,855), a level that has historically served as a mid-cycle support.

A confirmed breakdown below this zone could expose BTC to the 50-week EMA near $100,000, while a rebound from current levels would likely reignite bullish momentum, potentially sending prices toward $150,000 or higher by year-end.

Bitcoin Momentum Buyers Are Rising, But Long-Term Holders Still Dominate

While short-term data suggests speculative dominance, the broader onchain picture paints a more nuanced view.

BTC supply per investor behavior. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode’s long-term supply composition shows that “first buyers,” long-term holders who accumulated BTC early or during prior cycles, still control the majority of supply, over 5.1 million BTC.

Meanwhile, momentum buyers have indeed grown sharply this year, reaching about 8.8 million BTC, echoing the same behavioral pattern seen during mid-cycle tops in 2017 and 2021.

However, unlike those periods, conviction buyers have not yet capitulated. Their share, around 1 million BTC, remains consistent, suggesting that while speculative activity is rising, the long-term investor base continues to underpin the market.

This hybrid profile implies Bitcoin could be in a mid-cycle cooling phase rather than a full distribution top.

A deeper correction remains possible if momentum demand fades, but the absence of large-scale long-term selling argues against a sustained bear market, at least for now.