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Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Eyes on $2,385 Amid CPI, Fed Minutes Watch

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Apr 9, 2024, 07:00 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Gold (XAU/USD) hovers near $2,345, with a 0.28% rise hinting at bullish market sentiment.
  • Upcoming U.S. CPI data and Fed minutes may redefine Gold's price trajectory and market stability.
  • Geopolitical unrest and economic data are key drivers of Gold's safe-haven demand and price dynamics.
Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Eyes on $2,385 Amid CPI, Fed Minutes Watch

In this article:

Market Overview

In the latest trading session, Gold (XAU/USD) steadied around $2,345, barely moving from its peak just shy of $2,350 amidst fluctuating economic signals and global tensions. This movement represents a modest increase of 0.26%, indicating traders’ cautious optimism.

Anticipating Inflation and Interest Rate Revelations

The spotlight now turns to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, anticipated to confirm persistent inflationary pressures with a forecast hovering around a 0.3% monthly increase. This comes in the wake of a surprisingly strong nonfarm payrolls report, which has led to a recalibration of expectations for Federal Reserve rate adjustments. Furthermore, the minutes from the Fed’s March assembly are eagerly awaited, potentially shedding light on the central bank’s stance amid inflationary challenges.

Global Tensions Amplifying Gold’s Safe-Haven Status

The geopolitical chessboard, marked by escalating tensions in the Middle East and ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, continues to bolster gold’s position as a refuge for investors. Iran’s threats of retaliation against Israel and the enduring strife in Eastern Europe have kept the market on edge, further cementing gold’s role as a hedge against uncertainty.

A Glimpse Ahead: Economic Events to Watch

Market focus sharpens on the forthcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. These critical releases, anticipated on Wednesday, hold significant sway over Gold (XAU/USD) prices and general market direction.

Gold Prices Forecast

Gold - Chart
Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) on April 9 edged up to $2,346.01, a 0.28% increase, signaling potential bullish momentum. The pivot at $2,325.10 is crucial; staying above this could fortify the uptrend.

Resistance levels at $2,355.53, $2,370.38, and $2,385.22 delineate upcoming hurdles, while supports at $2,303.21, $2,278.34, and $2,256.82 provide downside cushions.

The 50-day EMA at $2,278 and the 200-day EMA at $2,179.27 underpin a longer-term bullish trend. Indications of a bullish engulfing pattern reinforce the uptrend’s viability. Therefore, maintaining above $2,325 suggests continued bullishness, whereas breaching this level may trigger significant sell-offs.

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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