Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: Consolidates Around 20-Day Average as Momentum Stalls

Silver Holds in Tight Consolidation

Silver extended its consolidation on Monday, posting another narrow range session following Friday’s muted action. The metal continues to flounder, lacking momentum as it hovers around the 20-Day moving average, now at $38.04. At the time of writing, silver traded between a high of $38.27 and a low of $37.81. Over the past eight sessions, the market has established a relatively tight range between $38.74 on the upside and $37.51 on the downside.

50-Day Average Anchors Support

The $37.51 support zone aligns closely with an uptrend line and the 50-Day moving average, currently at $37.33. This convergence provides a key lower boundary for the bull trend. A breakdown below $37.51 could trigger weakness, but the 50-Day line is likely to act as significant dynamic support if tested, limiting downside momentum. Notably, silver successfully tested this moving average as support across three consecutive sessions recently, reinforcing its importance.

Fibonacci Resistance Caps the Upside

On the upside, resistance remains clearly defined at the $38.74 swing high. That level completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent short-term advance, and so far, has ended attempts at recovering that level. Until silver can close decisively above $38.74, upward momentum remains limited, leaving the consolidation pattern intact. Traders will be watching closely to see which side of the $37.33–$38.74 band is resolved first.

Watching the Larger Trend Structure

The broader technical backdrop also carries weight. Silver continues to trade within a large ascending parallel channel that has guided price swings since early 2024. The upper boundary of that channel, which capped rallies in October and again earlier this year, when price briefly broke above the top line before falling back, remains an important marker of potential resistance. Historically, once a reversal occurs from one boundary of the channel, momentum often swings toward the opposite side.

While this remains only a possibility, it highlights the potential for downside pressure should silver fail to hold the 50-Day moving average. A sustained close below $37.33 would increase the likelihood of a deeper retracement within the channel. Until then, traders face a waiting game, as silver remains trapped between Fibonacci resistance above and moving average support below.

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