Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Friday’s NFP Data Could Trigger Major Price Moves

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) dipped slightly during early European trade on Wednesday after reaching an intraday high of $2,384 in Asian hours. The pullback followed a modest rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY).

However, gold continues to find underlying support from weaker US economic data, softening Treasury yields, and rising demand for safe havens. As of 12:00 GMT, spot gold was trading near $2,370 per ounce.

Silver (XAG/USD) followed a similar trajectory, slipping to $34.47 after an early session low of $34.43. Despite the minor retreat, silver remains on a firm footing, buoyed by dovish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and a persistent global risk premium.

Weaker Economic Data Undermines Yields, Bolsters Bullion

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have strengthened following disappointing macroeconomic readings. The latest ADP employment report showed just 37,000 private-sector jobs added in May, marking the lowest monthly gain since March 2023.

Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI fell to 49.9, signaling a contraction in the sector for the first time in nearly a year. These figures triggered a notable decline in US bond yields, with both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields sliding to their lowest levels in over a month.

“The soft data reinforces the market’s conviction that the Fed will pivot by Q3,” said Matthew Ryan, Head of Market Strategy at Ebury. This dovish backdrop has continued to support demand for non-yielding assets, such as gold.

Geopolitical Risks and Trade Uncertainty Sustain Precious Metals Demand

Beyond macroeconomics, rising geopolitical tensions and renewed concerns over global trade are keeping risk sentiment fragile. The US has doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, adding to fears of a re-escalation in trade tensions with major partners.

Investors are also eyeing an upcoming call between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, seen as pivotal for future trade policy direction. Until clarity emerges, risk aversion is likely to linger, further reinforcing safe-haven flows into gold and silver.

With Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report looming, both metals may remain range-bound, though positioning suggests investors are preparing for a potential upside breakout.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain range-bound but supported, with bullish structures intact. Key breakouts above $3,392 and $34.79 could trigger fresh upside ahead of the US NFP report on Friday.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady at $3,370, supported by a rising trendline and hovering just above the key 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,364. Price remains well above the 50-period EMA at $3,351 and the 200-period EMA at $3,313, signaling that the broader uptrend remains intact.

Despite several tight-bodied candles signaling indecision, bulls continue to defend higher lows. A clean break above $3,392 could extend the rally toward $3,412 or even $3,431.

On the flip side, a close below the trendline and $3,346 support would expose downside risk toward $3,332. Momentum is neutral for now, but the bias leans bullish as long as gold holds the $3,364 level.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $34.59, holding firm above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $34.31. The price continues to consolidate in a tight range below the recent high of $34.79, while remaining supported by a rising dotted trendline.

The 50-period EMA at $34.14 and the 200 EMA at $33.40 are both trending higher, reinforcing bullish momentum. Despite some hesitation, the candles suggest accumulation with buyers defending every dip.

A breakout above $34.79 would likely target $35.03, then $35.25. If support at $34.31 gives way, downside may extend to $34.02 or $33.78. The broader trend remains constructive, as it remains above the 50 EMA.