Bitcoin Price News: Top Buyers Capitulate and Sell BTC at a Loss – Buy Signal?

Bitcoin (BTC) has shed nearly 30% of its value since it hit its latest all-time high as market sentiment soured following the October 10 flash crash and some hawkish comments from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The Fear and Greed Index hit a record low recently as bearish sentiment took over. This marked a significant shift in the narrative in just a couple of months, from extremely bullish to extremely bearish.

Now, data from Glassnode seems to be indicating that those who bought at the very top have finally capitulated and dumped their tokens at a big loss.

Past Trends Favor a Bullish Outlook for Bitcoin

According to on-chain data, short-term holders who bought near BTC’s peak lost their shirts. Nearly $6 billion was taken out of their pockets as they succumbed to FOMO and were probably not expecting the “Powell – Trump” double punch.

Realized Losses by Short-Term and Long-Term Holders – Source: Glassnode

Interestingly, Glassnode emphasizes that long-term holders have faced relatively mild losses, meaning that the smart money is not ready yet to dump their bags.

In the past, this kind of capitulation has been a good thermometer to call “bottom” during a bearish cycle. In August 2024, top buyers who bought BTC at around $70,000 sold their stash less than a year later at around $50,000.

Then, the price reversed its downward trajectory and went on to reach a new all-time high at $100,000.

The market will now set its eyes on the upcoming FOMC meeting, which is scheduled to take place on Wednesday.

Powell’s comments regarding the future of interest rates for 2026 will likely be scrutinized. The market has already priced in a 25 basis points cut for this meeting, so there should not be any surprises on that front.

Meanwhile, the majority of analysts expect a rate cut somewhere in January – March 2026. Any changes to that scenario that fully discard that possibility could deepen the correction and endanger the recovery.

On the other hand, if the dot plot stays unchanged, the price will likely reach $100,000 or higher at some point in the next few weeks.

BTC Faces Selling Pressure at $99K But Market Structure is Still Bullish

Bitcoin has made a comeback in the past few days after finding a floor at $82,000 initially and then at $85,000. The 4-hour chart shows that an uptrend has started to form, although the token experienced significant selling pressure as it approached $100,000.

Now, the price seems headed to retest the lower bound of this price channel at around $85,000 again. A rejection of the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) catalyzed this downward move, as bearish sentiment persists.

BTC/USD Daily Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView

It appears that top buyers were the ones selling, not long-term holders. Hence, if they have already unloaded most of their bags, as this extreme peak in realized losses seems to show, the selling pressure could ease in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has once again turned bearish as it dropped below the 14-period moving average. This indicates that negative momentum is accelerating. With the weekend ahead of us, this collapse could accelerate as liquidity is much lower on Saturday.

If the trend line support holds, we could still see BTC bouncing off this area toward the $90,000 – $95,000 level in the next few days.