Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Bid Returns – Can XAU Recover $5,000?

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) managed to stop its bearish trend and gained strong traction near the 4,840 level. However, this upward trend was mainly supported by a risk-off market sentiment, which pushed investors towards safe-haven assets like gold. As a result, gold rebounded strongly from lower levels and touched an intraday high near 4,846. Another factor that has been supporting the price is growing expectations of more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2026.

Meanwhile, Silver (XAG/USD) extended its bullish momentum and is trading near the 74.00 level, posting strong gains of around 4.26%. The rally is supported by a risk-off mood, a weaker US dollar, and rising expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, which boosted demand for the precious metal.

Weak US Jobs Data and Rate Cut Hopes Support Gold Prices

On the US front, the US dollar lost some of its round due to expectations of lower interest rates in the United States. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are expecting the US Federal Reserve to deliver at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. Therefore, these expectations became stronger after recent data showed that the US labor market is weakening.

On the data front, the ADP report showed that private-sector jobs rose by just 22K in January, well below last month’s revised 37K and market expectations. The JOLTS report also revealed a drop in job openings to 6.542 million from 6.928 million previously. Additionally, weekly jobless claims increased to 231K, higher than both the prior week and forecasts. This weak data, along with expectations of lower interest rates, weighed on the US dollar and helped support demand for gold.

Gold Price Outlook: XAU $4,840 Tests Key Support as Trendlines Converge

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading close to $4,840 on the 4-hour chart after it could not move back above $5,000. This keeps short-term pressure on the price. Recent candlesticks have small bodies and long wicks, which shows hesitation instead of strong selling.

The price is still below a falling trendline from the January peak and under the 50-EMA near $4,950, which is acting as resistance.

On the downside, gold is staying above the $4,680 to $4,700 support area. This matches the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,855 and the rising lower trendline from the late January low.

The 200-EMA near $4,395 still marks the main uptrend and has not been tested yet. The RSI is around the mid-40s, which suggests the price is stable but not showing clear upward momentum. If gold breaks above $4,950, it could move toward $5,150. If it falls below $4,680, it may drop further toward $4,400.

Trade idea: Consider buying if gold breaks and holds above $4,950. The target would be $5,150, with a stop set below $4,680.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG $72 Holds Below Downtrend as Bears Keep Control

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $72.40 on the 2-hour chart, continuing its pullback from the $120 high. Recent candles are small with lower highs, showing weak recovery attempts instead of forming a base. The price is still below a falling trendline from late January, so short-term pressure continues.

Silver is trading below the 50-EMA near $90 and the 200-EMA around $92, which confirms a bearish setup. The old support at $81.30 is now resistance. The next downside targets are $64.40 and then $60.00, both matching earlier consolidation and demand. The price is moving in a falling channel, not dropping sharply.

Momentum indicators are not showing much improvement. The RSI is below 40, which means sellers are still in control and not yet worn out. The bias would only change if the price breaks above the trendline, but that has not happened yet.

Trade idea: Consider selling on rebounds below $75, aiming for $64, and set a stop above $82.