Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Downside Risks Loom as OPEC+ Output Hike Nears

Market Overview

Oil prices remain under pressure as markets digest rising OPEC+ supply and renewed global trade uncertainty. The alliance is expected to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, bringing the total 2025 additions to 1.78 million bpd, more than 1.5% of global demand.

At the same time, concerns over slowing economic growth and escalating tariff risks are curbing bullish sentiment. Brent crude recently surged past $80 on heightened geopolitical tensions before retreating to $67.

Morgan Stanley now forecasts Brent will fall to $60 by early 2026, projecting a supply surplus of 1.3 million bpd and easing geopolitical risk.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading around $3.466, stuck in a tight range just above the key support at $3.400. The recent breakdown below the 0.236 Fibonacci level ($3.568) has left the market vulnerable, especially as price action remains under the 50-EMA ($3.612) and 200-EMA ($3.779), reinforcing bearish pressure.

The chart shows a clear downtrend from the $4.11 peak, with lower highs and a weakening bounce structure. Momentum is subdued, and there’s no sign yet of a strong recovery.

If $3.400 fails to hold, prices could fall toward $3.301 and $3.183. A bounce above $3.574 would be needed to shift near-term sentiment. For now, the market remains on watch as traders await clearer direction.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil remains capped under $67.08, trading in a narrow range between $64.00 and $67.00 following a sharp drop from $77.12. The price is consolidating beneath both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, reinforcing a bearish structure.

Repeated failures to clear the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement add to downside risk. A confirmed break below $64.00 could trigger a move toward $63.00 and $61.80.

On the upside, only a close above $67.16 would challenge the current trend. Until then, the setup favors a continuation lower as price action lacks conviction and remains directionless inside the current range. Traders should stay alert for breakout confirmation.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading near $67.91, stuck in a tight consolidation after a sharp drop from the $80.32 peak. The price remains below the 50-EMA ($70.76) and 200-EMA ($70.47), maintaining downward pressure. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $69.93 has capped every attempt to recover, reflecting firm resistance.

The market is now ranging between $66.75 and $69.90, showing indecision with reduced volatility. Unless Brent breaks above the $70.00 level with strong volume, the path of least resistance points lower, a drop below $66.75 could open downside toward $64.96 and $63.48.