S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Tech Stocks Stall as Jobs Data, Rate Outlook Dominate

Wall Street Pulls Back as Rate-Cut Hopes Pause for Breath

Stocks gave up ground Monday, cooling off after last week’s rally that was juiced by Jerome Powell’s hint at a possible rate cut in September. The Dow and S&P 500 both retreated modestly, with the S&P shedding some steam after Friday’s pop, which marked its best single-day gain since May. Traders are still largely betting on a September cut, but Powell’s cautionary tone reminded everyone that nothing’s guaranteed.

Was Friday’s Rally Premature or Just a Breather?

Look, the market’s been riding high on soft jobs data and Powell’s slight dovish lean, but Monday brought a reality check. Ten of the S&P’s 11 sectors were in the red, with consumer discretionary leading the retreat. There’s still optimism — Jefferies even bumped its S&P 500 year-end target — but the market might be getting ahead of itself. The PCE inflation data lands Friday, and if that comes in hot, all bets are off.

What Are Traders Watching This Week?

Bottom line: it’s the jobs report that’s doing the heavy lifting here. Powell even said as much — inflation’s important, but labor market cracks could tip the Fed toward cutting. That’s why next Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data is likely to carry more weight than usual. Meanwhile, Fed speakers like New York’s John Williams are in focus this week. If he echoes Powell’s tone, that could help settle rate cut expectations a bit.

Is Nvidia About to Justify That $4 Trillion Valuation?

All eyes are on Nvidia this Wednesday. The stock’s been treading water lately, and with a $4 trillion price tag, expectations are sky-high. Investors want to see if the company’s new revenue-sharing deal with the government will affect its growth runway — or whether it puts a ceiling on things. Anything short of a blowout report could put pressure on the stock, and tech sentiment more broadly.

Tariff Talk Spooks Retailers and Chips at the Edges

On the corporate side, tariff headlines out of Washington are starting to weigh. RH and Wayfair both took 7% hits after Trump floated a new furniture import probe. Keurig Dr Pepper got slammed too, dropping 8% on an $18.4 billion acquisition of JDE Peet’s. Even Intel dipped after the White House said it’s taking a stake — not exactly bullish for global expansion.

What’s the Setup Heading into September?

Technically speaking, the S&P is still sitting above key support around 5,400. As long as we hold that floor, traders may look at pullbacks like Monday’s as potential buying opportunities. That being said, there’s a lot riding on data this week and next. More likely than not, the market wants to move higher, but it needs confirmation from jobs and inflation prints.

We’ll see how that plays out — but for now, the Powell momentum’s cooled just a touch.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.