XRP News Today: Whale Sell-Off Deepens as ETF Launch Timeline Slips

XRP-Spot ETF Delays Sink Investor Confidence

XRP whales dump over 400 million tokens as the SEC and the US government shutdown hit sentiment.

Large XRP holders, with wallet sizes ranging between 1 million and 10 million XRP, sold 440 million tokens (approx. $1.25 billion) in the past 30 days. The offload fueled selling pressure, pushing XRP briefly below the crucial $2.8 support level.

The US government shutdown has raised concerns about the timing of XRP-spot ETF launches, further weighing on XRP sentiment. The US Senate impasse extended into a ninth day on Thursday, October 9, as lawmakers failed to vote through a stopgap funding bill to reopen the government.

Why XRP Traders Need to Worry about the US Government Shutdown

The US government shutdown has left the SEC with a skeleton staff, meaning inadequate resources to review S-1s for crypto-spot ETFs. There are currently seven XRP-spot ETFs awaiting the SEC’s green light. However, the longer the US government remains closed, the greater the delay for issuers to launch the spot ETFs.

Final deadline decision dates ranged between October 18 and November 14. However, the approval of the Generic Listing Standards (GLS) for Commodity-Based Trust shares removed the requirement for 19b-4s and the 240-day review process. XRP-spot ETF issuers withdrew their 19b-4s and filed finalized S-1s in September, fueling hopes for imminent approvals.

XRP climbed to a September 13 high of $3.1860 in response to the GLS approval. However, the US government shutdown has triggered a sell-off. This underscores negative sentiment surrounding the delay.

According to betting platform Kalshi, the probability of the US government shutdown lasting more than 20 days is 62%, with a 50% chance of lasting longer than 25 days. Kalshi currently predicts the government shutdown will last 25.5 days, extending beyond October 18, the first final decision deadline.

Temporary Setback or Signs of Prolonged Weakness?

Despite the government shutdown, analysts expect the SEC to green-light the XRP-spot ETFs soon after reopening. Main Street demand for XRP could send the token to new highs, reversing the recent losses. XRP is down 1.51% for the current month.

However, spot ETF flow trends will be key, given the likelihood of multiple crypto-spot ETFs launching simultaneously.

Furthermore, BlackRock’s (BLK) continued silence on plans to launch an iShares XRP Trust remains a headwind. The issuer’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has dominated the crypto-spot ETF market, with net inflows of $64.93 billion since launch. For context, the second-largest BTC-spot ETF, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), has reported net inflows of $12.74 billion since launch.

October’s surge in demand for BTC-spot ETFs sent Bitcoin (BTC) to an all-time high of $125,761 on October 6, underscoring the influence of spot ETFs on the supply-demand balance.

Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented on IBIT’s performance, stating:

“Lost a bit of AUM yesterday bc of btc price decline but made it up w inflows. Still at $99b. So close yet so far. Just passed Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Fund ETF (VIG) (an etf legend) to take the 19th spot in overall aum.”

Rumors about an iShares XRP Trust filing had intensified in August but have since died down, dampening some of the initial enthusiasm.

An iShares XRP Trust could significantly shift market dynamics for XRP.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Spot ETF Delays Hurt

XRP fell 2.64% on Thursday, October 9, reversing the previous day’s 0.91% gain to close at $2.8044. The token underperformed the broader market, which dropped 1.92%, but crucially reclaimed $2.8.

Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support levels: $2.8 and $2.5.
• Resistance levels: $3, $3.1, $3.3, and $3.66 (all-time high).

Catalysts & Scenarios

In the coming sessions, several key scenarios could drive near-term price trends:

• The US Senate’s stopgap funding bill vote.
• Fed speeches.
• XRP ETF headlines (delays or launches), and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ appetite for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also dictate near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario

• GDLC, BITW, and XRPR ETFs report outflows, and BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• The US government shutdown enters its tenth day, delaying XRP-spot ETF launches.
• Lawmakers roadblock crypto-friendly regulations, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains dominance in the global remittance market, capping Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could drag XRP below $2.8, exposing the $2.5 support level.

Bullish Scenario

• US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill.
• Fed speakers call for interest rate cuts in October and December.
• BITW, GDLC, and XRPR register strong demand.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies adopt XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms use Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• SWIFT loses market share to Ripple.

These bullish scenarios could send XRP to $3, potentially bringing $3.1 into play. A sustained move through $3.1 could pave the way toward $3.3 and the all-time high of $3.66.

The Big Question: Can Investors Shake Off the Shutdown Blues?

On Friday, October 10, traders should continue monitoring developments on Capitol Hill. XRP and the broader market are exposed to a prolonged shutdown and significant delays to the influx of institutional money.

A Senate vote to pass a stopgap funding bill could trigger an XRP rally by reviving optimism over SEC approval of the S-1s.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory risks influence XRP’s price outlook in the coming weeks.