Natural Gas News: Futures Tumble Today as Forecast Cools and Resistance Holds

Natural Gas Futures Retreat Sharply as Forecasts Ease and Resistance Levels Hold

U.S. natural gas futures opened the week under pressure, falling hard in early Monday trading following a gap lower on the chart. After failing to break through a significant resistance cluster last week, the market has turned lower, reflecting both technical rejection and softer weekend weather forecasts.

At 13:32 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.387, down $0.178 or -4.99%.

Will Cooler Forecasts and Ample Supply Weigh Down Bullish Bets?

Natural gas for August delivery on the NYMEX dropped 14.5 cents to $3.420/MMBtu by early morning trading, erasing much of last week’s gains. The downturn follows a rejection just beneath a critical resistance area capped by the 50-day moving average at $3.700, a short-term pivot at $3.749, and the 200-day moving average at $3.798.

Despite extreme heat in the short term and forecasts calling for power burns to reach seasonal highs next week, updated models over the weekend trimmed roughly 5 cooling degree days (CDD) from expectations. Both the American and European models dialed back demand estimates, putting downward pressure on prices.

How Are Technical Traders Reacting to the $3.389 Pivot Zone?

Technically, the market is now testing the 50% retracement of its short-term range ($3.149 to $3.629) at $3.389. A sustained move below this key level would likely signal additional downside momentum and embolden bearish traders. For now, price action suggests a near-term correction rather than a structural breakdown, but much hinges on whether bulls defend this support area.

Are Supply Fundamentals Providing a Ceiling on Rallies?

Supply remains robust, and with wind generation expected to remain light, gas-fired power demand is elevated. Still, the modest step back in heat intensity and the market’s inability to punch through long-term moving averages point to traders being wary of chasing higher prices, especially ahead of updated EIA storage data and further weather model revisions later in the week.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook

Given the inability to clear overhead resistance and the bearish revision in weekend weather forecasts, the near-term outlook for U.S. natural gas leans bearish. A decisive move below $3.389 would confirm downside momentum, potentially drawing prices back toward $3.30. Traders should watch for further updates to heat forecasts and monitor how the market reacts to the current support zone in the coming sessions.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.