Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Rig Count Decline, Gulf Coast Refinery Demand

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are trading flat early Monday as investors prepare for another possible assault on multi-month highs following last week’s strong performance.

At 0514 GMT, November WTI crude oil futures are trading $50.46, up $0.03 or +0.06% and December Brent crude oil is at $55.46, up $0.04 or +0.07%.

Underpinning the markets at this time are bullish demand forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Administration. The catalysts that could continue to drive the upside momentum are another drop in U.S. rig drilling and increased demand from refineries that had been knocked out by Hurricane Harvey.

According to Baker Hughes, U.S. Energy firms cut seven oil rigs in the week to September 15, bringing the total count down to 749, the least since June.

Oil refineries across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean are restarting after being shut down by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. According to reports, Royal Dutch Shell’s 325,700-barrel-per-day joint-venture Deer Park, Texas restarted activity on Sunday.

Crude oil could continue to see strength if U.S. shale growth starts to show signs of stalling.

Forecast

If buyers can sustain the current rally over $50.62 then November WTI crude oil could make a run at $52.62 this week.

Holding $50.62 will indicate that the hedge and commodity funds are willing to buy strength. Falling back below $50.62 will mean that they would rather buy dips into support.