Oil Price News: OPEC+ Pause, Russia Sanctions & Tight Atlantic Basin Shape WTI/Brent

In this report: Oil floats idle at sea while U.S. inventories keep draining. Inside: Venezuela tensions, contango games, and the slow death of ESG illusion.

Key Market Stats: WTI Weekly Performance

WTI -2.23% for the week. Open $61.82 High $62.17 Low $59.64 Close $60.98

Source: Vortexa

OPEC+ Production Policy: Pause Through March 2026

OPEC Sunday came out with a pause on the scheduled production hike cycle. So out of the 1.654m barrels they are returning to market, the last hike has brought 137kbpd back, starting in Dec. This will then be frozen, with no more hikes through to March 2026. This should be mildly bullish. Taking away any threats of production hikes for Q1 2026. If we see US production levels pullback meaningfully, there could be a nice environment for a snap to higher prices in early December.

‘’Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026 as detailed in the table below’’.- OPEC+ release

How are Russian sanctions doing?

The EU is on its 19th sanction on Russian energy.

Market View: Floating Glut, Atlantic Basin Tightness

Below I explain how we have a floating glut, yet US stocks and refinery runs remain tight. A complex macro.

The glut is starting to drain. Source: Vortexa

In short: The market trades cautiously as roughly 1.4 billion barrels now sit on the water, the largest floating stockpile since 2020. Yet U.S. inventories keep drawing- a screaming contradiction. Much of that glut is stranded or slow-moving: sanctioned barrels, dark-fleet cargoes, and longer voyage times that bloat headline figures but do little to feed refineries.

Inside the Atlantic Basin (Western Hemisphere + Western Europe + West Africa), usable supply remains tight. U.S. refiners are still running hard to meet diesel and gasoline export demand, pulling barrels from Cushing, while global traders park crude offshore in mild contango plays. The result is a paper surplus and a physical short. I explain the contango play below.

Source: Vortexa

In short, the world may be swimming in oil, but few can reach the pool ladder.

Why ‘Oil‑on‑Water’ Doesn’t Ease U.S. Tightness

1) Floating Storage ≠ Deliverable Supply

Much of the 1.4 billion barrels on water is in transit or sanctioned barrels, not immediately available to refiners. A large chunk sits in “dark fleet” tankers moving Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude.

These barrels are technically “floating,” but not liquid in the commercial sense for OECD refiners. So, while global supply looks abundant on paper, usable supply into the U.S. system is tighter.

2) Longer Voyages Inflate ‘Oil‑on‑Water’

The rerouting of Russian and Middle Eastern barrels to Asia has lengthened voyage times dramatically

• Longer voyages mean more crude is “in motion” rather than “in storage.”
• Tankers effectively become mobile storage units, inflating the global floating total without relieving inland supply pressures.
• This dynamic tightens prompt physical availability in the Atlantic Basin, explaining why U.S. inventories draw even as total global oil-on-water rises.

3) U.S. Refiners Run Hot; Exports Drain Stocks

U.S. refiners have been running hard to meet diesel and gasoline export demand, particularly to Latin America and Europe. With global product inventories still low, U.S. exports are near record highs, draining domestic crude stocks.

• The U.S. has become the world’s swing supplier of refined products-a net draw even amid global surplus

4) Shale Growth Plateaus; Imports & SPR Builds Lag

US production is at new record highs, (13.,8m bpd) but the growth rate has flat lined. Without fresh builds from the SPR or meaningful imports, refinery draws exceed domestic replenishment—hence continued stock declines.

5) Market Structure: Mild Contango Keeps Barrels Offshore

Source: Vortexa

• The contango in the front-month structure incentivizes storing crude at sea for later sale, particularly for traders with cheap financing or distressed cargoes. In short- Oil that gets delivered in 3 to 6 months will be at a higher price, so why sell it now.
• Meanwhile, refiners and physical traders in the U.S. are drawing down inventories rather than paying to store expensive crude, given higher financing costs.
  The result: paper surplus, real-world tightness.

ESG Reassessed: Energy Reality vs. Green Narratives

“Oil and natural gas are essential. There’s no other viable way to meet the world’s energy needs….All major credible scenarios include oil and natural gas as a dominant energy source in 2050” ExxonMobil 2025 Global Outlook.

Decarbonisation has been over-sold to the western public. Therefore, it was gobbled up and overbought in the markets- greenwashing, ESG return curves that are negative on any sub 50 year horizon. Hell, just look at what happened to BP, who went whole hog with ESG and failed. The awakening is even going as far up the chain as what happened to BP.

ICLN iShares Global Clean Energy ETF. Monthly bars.

ESG greenwashing interlopers have been squeezed out…..for now. Now we can start to look at carbon-neutral/ carbon reduction, without the virtue signalling that goes with it. Here is a list of strong ESG funds that what happened to BP.

Positioning Watch: Specs’ Net Shorts Near Highs

Max is working on bringing ICE EU & US data over onto our tool. In the meanwhile, Im borrowing from Commodity Context. Specs are increasing their net position. As we saw last week, they are at the highest level in shorts since 2011.

Trade Setup: WTI December Seasonality & Key Levels

Here below, we are utilising proprietary lookback data to analyse seasonality of the December what happened to BP over the last 30 years and 15 years. We can clearly see that this contract sells down from a peak on Oct 13th into expiry around the 23rd November.

We can expect that there may be a small rally over the coming days, however this will get sold down again to new lows. This is the higher probability, not the certainty.

We can then translate over to the price chart. Below is the chart movement I expected last week. We can clearly see that the 1st leg of selling came in with the expected bounce back up to Y-1- NOW $60.98. So this might be a two parter downside move.

WTI December futures. Daily bars. Last week’s guidance. Move 1 and 2 complet.

The balance of the market is between the fear of the glut actually landing and the tightness seen in US storage and refinery runs. So this is an intensely layered Rubik’s Cube for price. When the market is faced with such a push and pull, it will generally slow down, volumes will drop off and wait for a clear directional catalyst to come.

The good news is that if you have a good technical edge, you can chip rather than hit.

WTI DECEMBER FUTURES. Daily bars. QVWAP

I’m expecting a bit of upside pressure, but 100% unsustainable. I read that record level shorts in Brent stepped back a little this past week from ICE EU data. So a rally Monday may well fit that narrative. However, backtest data that we use -as above- tells me no matter what, seasonally this Dec contract will sell down. More below

WTI DECEMBER FUTURES. 30 Mins bars. MVWAP

If we sell from the get-go, I think I could get involved short on a bounce pullback from Q-1 $58.48s support. As is normally the way, you have more time to get involved than you think. Trade the pullback not the break. Don’t go chasing shorts if you miss the initial inflection. You always end up paying too much in risk, which, almost 100% of the time, shoots your psychological conviction dead. There are sharper execution methods you can use. Get in touch if you need to get a better edge.

Bottom Line: Paper Surplus, Real‑World Shortage

The oil market’s contradiction is laid bare — a record 1.4 billion barrels afloat, yet U.S. inventories keep drawing as usable supply tightens inside the Atlantic Basin. Floating crude is stranded or sanctioned, voyage times are stretching, and refiners are running hard to meet export demand. Add in a plateauing U.S. shale patch, a mild contango that traps barrels offshore, and rising tension around Venezuela’s dormant giant, and you get the same conclusion: the surplus is paper, the shortage is real.