Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: Bearish Reversal Points Lower

Bearish Reversal Triggered

Silver triggered a one-day bearish reversal on Monday, dropping below Friday’s low of $48.37 to a day’s low of $48.02. A daily close below that low will confirm the breakdown and open the path to lower levels. Though a lower daily high and low will be established, the relatively narrow range day shows no aggressive selling — indicating a measured, controlled pullback rather than a panic move. This type of action often reflects professional positioning rather than retail fear.

Resistance Test

The breakdown forms a lower swing high after Friday’s test of resistance at a top rising channel line. This line had provided support for several days following last month’s $54.49 peak. Once price turns down from a prior dynamic support area, the short-term trend gains credibility and risks continuation. The 20-day average at $49.70 serves as the other key dynamic resistance to monitor on any rebound attempt.

Upside Potential

A decisive advance above today’s high could challenge last week’s $49.38 high. The 20-day line would then become the next resistance barrier, along with the 50% retracement at $50.02. Last week completed a potential bullish hammer candle, but the pattern remains invalid until a breakout above the week’s high occurs. Given last week’s wide range and today’s bearish behavior, silver may drop deeper into that range before buyers step in with conviction.

Channel Dynamics

Last week’s swing low was $45.55, near the 50% retracement at $45.72 and the centerline of a rising trend channel — providing clear validation for the pattern. Friday’s price action further confirmed this support. The high nearly touched a 200% extended top channel line (dashed blue), while the original channel is bounded by black trendlines. Silver continues to respect these parameters, showing technical awareness in the market.

Support Levels

Key dynamic support is the rising 50-day average at $45.62, now converging with the 50% level. It offers a lower target on continued weakness. Having advanced above the $45.55 swing low, it reduces near-term break risk and suggests a breakout above last week’s high could spark renewed demand and bullish momentum. However, the 20-day must also be exceeded first to shift the short-term trend.

Outlook

A closing price below $48.37 is decisive — below it targets $45.62, above it tests $49.38. The narrow range and channel support favor a measured pullback. Watch 50-day convergence — holding it keeps the long-term trend intact, while a break risks a deeper correction. Today’s action leans bearish until $49.38 is cleared.

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