Silver (XAG) Forecast: Will NFP Push Silver Toward $44 or Trigger a Pullback?

Silver Closes at Multi-Year High—Breakout Now Confirmed

Silver ended the week at $39.69, gaining $0.83 or +2.13%, and confirmed a breakout above the long-standing resistance at $39.53. This marks the highest weekly close in over a decade and caps an 8.11% rally for August. The breakout ends a multi-week consolidation and shifts the weekly trend firmly in favor of the bulls.

The weekly close above $39.53 clears a key barrier that had capped prices since July. With bullish momentum intact and no significant resistance on the chart until the $44.22 area, silver has a clear technical path higher—assuming overall conditions stay supportive.

Fed Cut Expectations and Dollar Weakness Bolster the Rally

Markets continue to price in an 89% probability of a Fed rate cut in September after July’s PCE inflation data showed a 2.9% core reading. While inflation remains sticky, recent Fed commentary has emphasized labor market risks over price pressures. That dovish tone has added support for precious metals.

The U.S. Dollar Index posted a 2.19% drop in August and now trades below key longer-term trend levels. The weaker dollar, alongside continued strength in gold, is reinforcing silver’s upside. Political headlines around Fed independence have also increased the appeal of hard assets.

Weekly Chart Targets $44.22, Strong Support Below

With the $39.53 breakout level now in the rearview, the next meaningful resistance lies at $44.22—a multi-month ceiling that could act as a magnet if upside momentum persists. There are no major barriers between current levels and that zone.

Support is layered below. The first level to watch is $39.96, followed by $36.31 and $35.28. All three have acted as structural support during previous consolidations. The 52-week moving average at $33.33 offers deeper trend protection and remains well below the current range.

Outlook: Bullish Trend Intact, But August Jobs Report is Key

Silver enters the new week with a clear technical breakout and strong macro tailwinds. As long as price holds above $39.53, the focus remains on a potential run toward $44.22. Traders should stay biased long while pullbacks hold above support.

However, Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report could inject volatility. After July’s disappointing labor data and sharp downward revisions, the August print is a critical read. Barclays is forecasting 75,000 new jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate. A weak report could lock in easing expectations and reinforce silver’s rally. A stronger print may challenge rate cut bets and pressure metals.

Until then, the trend remains bullish—confirmation is in hand, and silver’s technicals are pointing higher.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.