The Day Ahead: Markets Await Key PCE Inflation Gauge and Fed Cues Today

Market Overview

U.S. stock futures are higher Friday as traders await key inflation data and assess the confirmed U.S.-China trade framework aimed at easing rare earth and tech restrictions.

S&P 500 Index futures are up 0.2%, Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.3%, and Dow futuresDow futures up 0.2%, with the S&P 500 just 0.1% below its all-time intraday high of 6,147.76 following a 23.3% rebound from the April lows. Flows continue to support risk assets in the absence of fresh downside catalysts.

The May PCE report is the main driver for today’s trade, providing the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge as markets look for signs of stickiness that could influence the timing and scale of rate cuts into Q3.

Key Economic Releases

Scheduled for Friday, June 27 (GMT):

• 12:30 – Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), exp. +0.1% MoM, 2.3% YoY (prior 2.1%)
• 12:30 – Core PCE, exp. +0.1% MoM, 2.6% YoY (prior 2.5%)
• 12:30 – Personal Income (May)
• 12:30 – Personal Spending (May)
• 14:00 – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final, June)

The PCE report carries weight as the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, with traders looking for evidence that inflation is cooling enough to justify a September or November rate cut.

A softer print could reinforce the Fed’s “wait-and-see” stance while providing room to ease policy later this year, while a sticky core reading near 2.6% could dampen expectations of aggressive easing. Personal spending and sentiment will add clarity on consumer resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties.

Notable Earnings

Before the Opening Bell:

• APOG (Apogee Enterprises) – expected EPS $0.47, providing signals on non-residential construction demand and architectural market health.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

Treasury yields are slightly higher as traders position ahead of the PCE release:

• 10-year: 4.27% (+2 bps)
• 2-year: 3.75% (+4 bps)
• 30-year: 4.82% (flat)

Gold is down 1.3% to 3,283.56, approaching a one-month low as easing geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Israel ceasefire and China trade developments, reduce immediate safe-haven demand and lower inflation hedge urgency.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 Index futures are trading near 6,210, with resistance at 6,288.75 and layered support at 5,875 (50-day MA) and 5,971 (200-day MA).

Nasdaq-100 Index futures near 22,736 are just below resistance at 22,873, with support at 21,100 (50-day MA) and 21,191 (200-day MA).

Dow Index futures at 43,827 have support at 43,516 (recent breakout), 43,471 (200-day MA), and 42,136 (50-day MA). The next key resistance is 46,326.

Outlook

Today’s session will pivot around the May PCE report and related consumer data, which will guide Fed rate expectations into Q3 while shaping momentum near record highs.

Traders will watch Treasury yield reactions, liquidity conditions, and the resilience of consumer spending to assess whether the path is clear for a gradual easing cycle.

The stabilizing U.S.-China trade environment continues to underpin risk sentiment, with the primary risks centered on inflation stickiness that could keep the Fed cautious on near-term cuts.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.