Futures Slip as Traders Brace for CPI and Trade Headlines

U.S. stock futures are modestly lower this morning, with S&P 500 futures down 0.34%, Nasdaq 100 off 0.38%, and Dow futures lower by 0.25%. Market focus is locked on two drivers: a tentative U.S.-China trade framework and this morning’s release of May CPI.

Tuesday’s session saw broad gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each climbing 0.6% and the Dow adding 0.3%. The S&P has posted three straight advances and sits less than 2% off February highs, though rising yields and trade uncertainty remain headwinds.

Inflation Test: May CPI in Focus at 12:30 GMT

Key inflation estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Headline CPI (MoM): +0.2% expected vs +0.22% prior

Core CPI (MoM): +0.27% forecast vs +0.24% prior

Headline CPI (YoY): +2.4% expected

Core CPI (YoY): +2.9% forecast

Barclays sees a risk of upside surprise in core goods categories, including apparel and autos. Any deviation from forecast could sharpen market pricing on rate path expectations, though consensus still sees no Fed shift in the near term. Also on the docket: Federal Budget Balance at 18:00 GMT.

Earnings Spotlight: Oracle Looms Large After the Bell

Before the Open
• CHWY ($0.17 EPS est): Traders watching for signs of discretionary resilience in pet retail
• SAIL (-$0.01 EPS est): Software margins and demand updates in focus

After the Close
• ORCL ($1.64 EPS est | $15.58B rev est): Oracle’s AI-linked data center expansion in Texas could drive major upside. UBS sees it as a gateway to OpenAI-linked cloud scale, positioning Oracle as a top-tier GPU infrastructure provider.
• OXM ($1.81 EPS est): Apparel earnings with limited market influence, but useful for retail read-throughs

Tight Ranges, Big Levels: Index Futures Hold Just Below Breakouts

S&P 500 futures sit near 6,035, coiling below key resistance at 6,236.50. Higher lows at 5,756.50 and 5,596.00 back bullish momentum, with support anchored at the 200-day SMA (5,903.07) and 50-day SMA (5,674.80).

Nasdaq 100 futures trade near 21,932.50, just under resistance at 22,656.75. Structure remains intact above 20,858.52 (200-day) and 20,143.90 (50-day), with interim support at 20,727.00.

Dow futures are under pressure, now trading below the 200-day SMA at 42,132.00. Price has rolled over from the recent 43,148 resistance zone, with support likely to be tested at the 50-day SMA near 41,267.80. The failure to hold above the 200-day reintroduces downside risk into the Dow’s structure.

Outlook:  CPI, Tariff Tensions, and Tech Earnings in Play

Markets head into Wednesday’s session facing three critical variables. First, the May CPI report at 12:30 GMT will directly influence inflation expectations and yield curve pricing.

Second, a newly announced U.S.-China trade consensus may reduce tariff risk but lacks concrete implementation details, leaving markets cautious.

Finally, Oracle’s earnings after the close could serve as a pivotal test for tech leadership, especially with its emerging role in AI infrastructure.

Equities are sitting just under breakout levels across the board. A hotter CPI could stall momentum, while a solid report paired with strong earnings from Oracle might provide the ignition bulls need.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.