The Week Ahead: Markets Focus on Jobs Report and Fed Outlook

Market Overview

Major U.S. indexes eased slightly last week, pulling back after four straight months of gains. The S&P 500 slipped 0.10% to 6,460.26, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.19% to 21,455.55, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.19% to 45,544.89. Despite the pause, all three remain in strong technical positions, trading well above their 52-week moving averages.

The focus this week turns to Friday’s jobs report. July’s weak print and downward revisions have raised expectations of a cooling labor market. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments flagged rising risks to employment, making this report a potential catalyst for a policy shift at the Fed’s September 17 meeting.

While artificial intelligence remains a key market driver, recent earnings from sector leader NVIDIA suggest high expectations are becoming a hurdle. The muted stock reaction to strong results signals growing caution.

Still, broadening participation — including strength in small caps, homebuilders, and cyclicals — reflects investor confidence in an easing cycle. Traders are watching whether that shift continues as monetary policy expectations evolve.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Sep 1

• Market closed for Labor Day

Tuesday, Sep 2

• Before Open: Academy Sports + Outdoors ($2.15), Nio (loss of $2.22), Signet Jewelers ($1.24)

After Close: Zscaler ($0.80)

13:45 GMT: Final Manufacturing PMI (53.3 expected)

14:00 GMT: ISM Manufacturing PMI (48.9), ISM Manufacturing Prices (65.1), Construction Spending (-0.1%)

Tentative: RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (51.8)

Wednesday, Sep 3

• Before Open: Dollar Tree ($0.41), Campbell Soup ($0.56), Macy’s ($0.19), REV Group ($0.63), Sprinklr ($0.10)

• After Close: Salesforce ($2.78 on $10.1B revenue)

• 13:00 GMT: Fed’s Musalem speaks

• 14:00 GMT: JOLTS Job Openings (7.24M), Factory Orders (-1.3%)

• All Day: Wards Total Vehicle Sales (16.0M)

• 17:30 GMT: Fed’s Kashkari speaks

• 18:00 GMT: Beige Book

• 20:30 GMT: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

Thursday, Sep 4

• 11:30 GMT: Challenger Job Cuts (prior 139.8%)

• 12:15 GMT: ADP Employment Report (71K)

• 12:30 GMT: Jobless Claims (229K), Productivity (2.9%), Labor Costs (0.9%), Trade Balance (-$67.2B)

• 13:45 GMT: Final Services PMI (55.4)

• 14:00 GMT: ISM Services PMI (50.5)

• 14:30 GMT: Natural Gas Storage

• 16:00 GMT: Crude Inventories

• 16:05 GMT: Fed’s Williams speaks

• 23:00 GMT: Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

Friday, Sep 5

• 12:30 GMT: Nonfarm Payrolls (74K), Unemployment Rate (4.3%), Average Hourly Earnings (0.3%)

Central Bank Activity

Fed policymakers will dominate the schedule with remarks from Musalem, Kashkari, Williams, and Goolsbee. With Powell signaling labor concerns, their tone could reinforce expectations for a policy shift. Traders will also study Wednesday’s Beige Book for regional insights into labor and demand trends.

Technical Outlook

• S&P 500: 6,460.26 (-0.10%), support at 6,212.69, resistance at 6,508.23, 52-week SMA at 5,916.15

• Nasdaq Composite: 21,455.55 (-0.19%), support at 20,905.99, resistance at 21,803.75, 52-week SMA at 19,074.79

• Dow Jones: 45,544.89 (-0.19%), support at 43,340.68, resistance at 45,757.84, 52-week SMA at 42,904.23

Momentum is intact but resistance levels are being tested.

Outlook

This week centers on the August payrolls report. A weaker print could confirm labor softening and cement expectations for a September rate cut, likely fueling further gains in rate-sensitive stocks and broadening market strength. Stronger labor numbers could delay easing and pressure high-growth names.

Other catalysts include ISM reports, productivity data, and Fed commentary. Salesforce and Dollar Tree earnings will provide signals on tech demand and consumer health. September often brings choppier price action, but the broader setup remains constructive barring an upside surprise in jobs data.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.