The Week Ahead: Markets Look to FOMC and Powell for Policy Direction

Market Overview

U.S. equities surged last week as recession fears eased and trade tensions showed signs of thawing. The S&P 500 climbed 2.92%, marking its ninth straight daily gain—the longest winning streak since 2004.

The Nasdaq rose 3.42%, and the Dow gained 3.0%. Friday’s rally, driven by a better-than-expected April payrolls report (+177K vs. +133K est.), capped a week that saw the S&P fully recover losses tied to President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement.

Market momentum also stemmed from optimism over trade talks after Chinese officials indicated willingness to negotiate, provided the U.S. shows “sincerity” and reverses unilateral tariffs. While Apple and Amazon flagged tariff-related concerns in earnings calls, Microsoft and Meta’s massive capex plans in AI helped tech outperform. As it stands, the White House’s temporary tariff reduction to 10% for 90 days continues to provide a short-term tailwind.

Key Economic Releases

• Monday, May 5
  • ISM Services PMI (14:00 GMT)
  • S&P Final U.S. Services PMI (13:45 GMT)
• Tuesday, May 6
  • Trade Balance – March (12:30 GMT)
• Wednesday, May 7
  • FOMC Rate Decision (18:00 GMT)
  • Fed Chair Powell Press Conference (18:30 GMT)
  • Consumer Credit – March (19:00 GMT)
• Thursday, May 8
  • Initial Jobless Claims – Week ending May 3 (12:30 GMT)
  • Q1 Productivity (12:30 GMT)
  • Wholesale Inventories – March (14:00 GMT)
• Friday, May 9
  • Nine Fed speeches including Williams (10:15 & 15:30 GMT), Waller (15:30 GMT), Goolsbee, Cook, Hammack, Musalem (17:45 GMT)

Notable Earnings

• Monday, May 5:
  • Palantir (PLTR) – Est. $0.13 EPS; focus on AI and federal contracts
  • Ford (F) – Est. $0.00 EPS; monitor EV demand and China impact
• Tuesday, May 6:
  • AMD (after close) – Est. $1.01 EPS on $7.29B revenue; server and GPU outlook in focus amid tariff effects
  • Uber (UBER) – Est. $0.51 EPS; insights on mobility and margin compression
  • Walt Disney (DIS) – Est. resilient EPS; commentary on Parks and ad spend key given macro uncertainty
• Wednesday, May 7:
  • Shopify (SHOP), Vertex Pharma (VRTX), Unity Software (U), Teva (TEVA)
• Thursday, May 8:
  • Paramount Global (PARA), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Coinbase (COIN) – focus on retail trading and crypto volumes
• Friday, May 9:
  • AMC Networks (AMCX), Enbridge (ENB)

Central Bank Activity

The Fed’s May FOMC meeting concludes Wednesday. No rate change is expected, but Chair Powell’s press conference at 18:30 GMT will be closely watched. The stronger-than-expected jobs data has reduced the probability of a June cut to 33%, according to CME FedWatch. Powell is under political pressure from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent to ease policy, but solid labor data gives the Fed room to hold steady. Markets will parse Powell’s language for any softening in inflation and growth outlook.

Friday’s packed post-blackout Fed speaker schedule could clarify where consensus stands. Expect particular focus on Waller, Cook, and Williams for insights into rate path calibration.

The Week Ahead Outlook

Markets have regained footing, bolstered by resilient jobs data, improving trade signals, and tech-led earnings.

hile tariffs remain a headline risk—especially as the 90-day pause expires in July—traders will be watching for follow-through on U.S.-China dialogue and guidance from AMD, Disney, and Coinbase this week.

Fed commentary will be crucial in shaping rate cut expectations into the summer. For now, better sentiment and improving data are keeping risk appetite elevated.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.