Top 4 Things Traders Have to Know Today
What is happening with Meta, Paypal and Spotify?
Spotify didn’t actually issue annual guidance, which seems to have exacerbated worries about potential subscriber growth potential. All three were down by double-digits in after hours trading at one point last night.
Competition is clearly much more fierce as larger players are starting to dial it in and use the latest technology to gain better traction i.e. Visa, Mastercard, etc. I also read reports this week that Apple is diving deeper into the payment and banking space and will soon be able to offer all kinds of options via the smartphone.
In simple terms, I wonder if PayPal executives could see they had a “growth” problem and that’s why they took a look at Pinterest a few months back. I heard rumors yesterday perhaps they might be looking at Robinhood.
At the moment the stock market just doesn’t seem real forgiving to those who swing and miss. On a somewhat positive note, Facebook disclosed they purchased back +$20 billion of their own stock in the last quarter.
Bulls are hoping for solid results from Amazon and Snap today to help prevent sentiment in the tech sector from creating more fallout. I’m not holding my breath!
Data to watch
Results are also due from Activision Blizzard, Biogen, Carlyle Group, Check Point, Cigna, Clorox, ConocoPhillips, Deckers Outdoors, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Ford, Hanesbrands, Hershey, Honeywell, Ingredion, Merck, Pinterest, Quest Diagnostics, Royal Dutch Shell, SnapOn, Wynn Resorts, and Xylem.
On the economic data front, Factory Orders, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, and Productivity and Costs are due today. Productivity and Costs has become a more closely watched report as worries about climbing wages have grown. In the third quarter, productivity fell -5.2% (the most since 1960) and labor costs rose +9.6%.
Obviously, weakening productivity and rising costs is a bad combo for corporate profits so reversing this trend is a high priority. It may be tough to find much relief in the near-term with the labor market expected to remain extremely tight.
The shortage of workers has also been exacerbated by the latest Covid wave. ADP’s private payrolls report yesterday showed a decline of -301,000 jobs for January versus the estimate for a +200,000 gain, the first reported net job less since December 2020 according ADP.
Most analysts blame last month’s Covid surge for the decline and expect it is just temporary. The official January Employment Report on Friday is expected to show a gain of around +150,000 jobs, though the government has warned that the data won’t be reliable due to Covid-related reporting problems. Hopefully we’ll soon stop hearing that excuse as the Omicron Covid wave does seem to be burning itself out in the U.S. Case numbers across the country are about half of what they were in mid-January.
Hospitalizations have finally started to come down, too, which experts say is a more reliable measure. I hate to mention it but health officials are currently monitoring a mutated strain of Omicron known as “BA.2″… when does it end?
The standoff between Ukraine and Russia
Also still on the radar is the standoff between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. is now readying to send more than +3,000 troops to bases in Eastern Europe as new satellite images appeared to show an even further increase in Russian troop buildup on Ukraine’s borders. Whether or not war is a realistic threat or not, the climbing tensions continue to stoke the flames in the energy markets.
Brent crude futures are trading near $90 as OPEC struggles to meet production targets and global physical supplies continue to tighten. The 19 OPEC+ countries with quotas underperformed their production targets by -832,000 b/d in December. Russia is currently the top OPEC+ producer, so any disruption to those supplies runs the risk of shooting oil prices even higher. Take note the front-end of the natural gas market is up over +50% in the first month of the new year. It’s certainly going to be a wild ride in 2022!