XRP News Today: ETF Launch Hopes Build Despite Uptober Setback

XRP investors brace for turbulence as global policy shifts collide. Uptober disappointment continued to drag XRP lower as markets reacted to a less dovish Fed and US-China trade developments. Fed Chair Powell downplayed the chances of a December Fed rate cut on Wednesday, October 29, weighing on risk assets.

As markets reacted to Fed Chair Powell’s less dovish press conference, the highly anticipated President Trump and President Xi Jinping meeting took center stage. It was a double blow for XRP and the broader crypto market.

The meeting lasted less than two hours, short of the expected four-hour duration. The shorter-than-expected meeting on Thursday disappointed investors, triggering a sharp drop in XRP demand.

Trump-Xi Talks Fall Short of Market Expectations

The highly anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi failed to yield major concessions and lower US tariffs on Chinese shipments.

China agreed to delay restrictions on rare earth exports and purchase US farm products, including soybeans. Meanwhile, Trump lowered duties on fentanyl-related goods from 20% to 10%. The adjustment took the overall tariff rate on Chinese shipments down from 57% to 47%. Nevertheless, US tariffs on Chinese goods have risen sharply from 3% to 47% since President Trump’s election victory.

CN Wire reported:

“Asian currencies are mixed against the dollar in the morning session, but may be weighed down by disappointment over the US-China trade truce. This marks the third extension of the truce, Sucden Financial’s Research team says in commentary. This means that the US’s effective tariff rate on Chinese goods has increased from 3.0% to 47.0% since the start of Trump’s second presidential term, the team notes.”

The team also reportedly stated that the trade war truce highlighted unresolved tensions and lingering core differences between the two economies.

Market disappointment over the meeting and Fed Chair Powell’s policy outlook pushed XRP to an October 30 intraday low of $2.3781.

For context, XRP has been particularly sensitive to US-China trade headlines. President Trump threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods on Friday, October 10, triggering a flash crash. The token plunged to an October 10 low of $0.7773 before rebounding.

XRP-Spot ETF Issuers Eye November Launch Dates

Crucially, US-China trade developments and Fed Chair Powell’s policy stance overshadowed news on XRP-spot ETFs.

Canary Funds filed an S-1 amendment form for its XRP-spot ETF on Thursday, October 30, signaling a November 13 launch.

CryptoAmerica host and journalist Eleanor Terrett reported:

“Canary Funds has filed an updated S-1 for its XRP-spot ETF, removing the ‘delaying amendment’ that stops a registration from going auto-effective and gives the SEC control over timing. This sets Canary’s XRP ETF up for a launch date of November 13, assuming the Nasdaq greenlights the 8-A filing.”

Earlier this week, Bitwise, Canary Funds, and Grayscale launched crypto-spot ETFs despite the ongoing US government shutdown. Crucially, the ETF issuers included language in their S-1s, which enables launches if exchanges file 8-As, removing the SEC’s need to greenlight spot-ETFs.

We speculated that these launches, coinciding with the US Senate impasse, could result in S-1 amendments to enable the auto-launch of XRP-spot ETFs.

Notably, SEC Chair Paul Atkins is reportedly supportive of the auto-effective method, potentially triggering a wave of S-1 amendments from XRP-spot ETF issuers.

Eleanor Terrett commented:

‘It’s worth noting that the SEC Chair himself seems to be on board with companies taking advantage of the auto-effective method. While not commenting directly on the ETF launches, Chair Atkins said yesterday he was pleased to see companies like MapLight using the 20-day statutory waiting period to go public during the shutdown, praising the same legal mechanism Bitwise and Canary used to launch their SOL, HBAR, and LTC ETFs this week.”

Markets Expect XRP-Spot ETF Inflow Surge at Launch

An XRP-spot ETF launch could fuel institutional demand and drive the token to new highs. However, traders must wait for either the US government to reopen or for XRP-spot ETFs to begin trading to assess demand.

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg has been increasingly optimistic about demand for XRP-spot ETFs. He recently increased his XRP-spot ETF inflow forecast, stating:

“I may have been a little bearish. We’re going to hold to that number. If it hits that number, at least I’ll be right, and if it’s $10 billion, then I’m still right because we got at least $5 billion. If we saw that kind of inflow, I think it would definitely be in the top 20 ETFs of all time, if not in the top 10.”

The prospect of an XRP-spot ETF market, the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill, a $1 billion treasury reserve, and rising utility support a bullish price trajectory.

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

XRP slid 4.4% on Thursday, October 30, following the previous day’s 2.06% loss, closing at $2.4401. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which fell 2.15%.

Following a four-day losing streak, XRP continued trading below the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias. However, several events could trigger a bearish trend reversal.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.6661.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.6085.
• Resistance levels: $2.50, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Coming Sessions

In the upcoming sessions, several key events could influence near-term price trends:

• A US Senate vote.
• XRP-spot ETFs (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ appetite for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.5

• BlackRock downplays plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• The US government shutdown continues, further delaying XRP-spot ETF launches.
• The US Senate opposes crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could push XRP toward the $2.35 level, exposing the $2.2 support level. If breached, the $2.0 would be the next key support level.

Despite the recent recovery from below $2.2, the descending channel shows repeated tests of upper resistance in early October. However, each rally has broken down at a lower price level. See the chart below for reference.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3 Gains Traction

• The US Senate impasse ends.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies boost XRP holdings for treasury reserve purposes, and Main Street integrates Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill advances on Capitol Hill.

These bullish events could send XRP above $2.4, paving the way toward $2.62. A sustained move through $2.62 could allow buyers to target $2.80. A break above $2.80 may bring the $3.0 psychological level into play. A sustained move above $3.00 could extend gains toward the all-time high of $3.66.

Despite the four-day losing streak, XRP has traded within a narrowing range ahead of key events. See the chart below. The current pattern suggests an imminent move, with the OCC, the Senate, and the SEC in the focus. Holding above the lower band will be key for XRP to retest the $3.0 level.

Outlook: Tailwinds Signal Bullish Momentum

XRP’s near-term trajectory will now hinge on Capitol Hill.

The token remains in negative territory for October. However, the launch of XRP-spot ETFs and the Market Structure Bill’s progress could trigger a rebound, sending the token to new highs.