XRP News Today: Bulls Eye $3 as ETF Approval Odds Hold at 99%

The US government shutdown extended to 27 days on Monday, October 27, further delaying the launch of XRP-spot ETFs. Market hopes for a cascade of events to drive XRP to new highs faded as the SEC continues with a skeleton staff. With no Senate vote on a stopgap funding bill, profit-taking snapped a four-day winning streak.

While XRP-spot ETFs face delays, several crypto ETFs are set to launch this week. ETF launches include the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, the Grayscale Solana ETF, the Canary Litecoin ETF, and the Canary HBAR ETF.

These launches give the ETFs an early advantage over the delayed XRP-spot ETFs. The longer the US government shutdown, the greater the delay to sticky institutional money inflows into XRP-spot ETFs.

Timeline Insights and Legal Commentary

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan commented on the timeline for crypto ETF launches, stating:

“I had a strong feeling XRP spot ETFs would be next. There are always delays when it comes to XRP. Always held back.”

CryptoAmerica and journalist Eleanor Terrett provided reasons for the crypto ETFs launching despite the US government shutdown, stating:

“It’s my understanding that the 8-A filings are just as important as the S-1s in getting ETFs ready to launch.”

Terrett explained that the 8-A registers the ETF shares under the 1934 Act for trading on an exchange. By contrast, the S-1 registers ETF shares under the Securities Act of 1933. The NYSE registered all the crypto ETFs, set to launch this week, with 8-As.

Crucially, the ETF issuers also included language in their S-1s, permitting them to launch the ETFs 20 days after filing, without needing SEC approval.

XRP ETF Launch Options and Market Outlook

XRP-spot ETF issuers could potentially file amended S-1s with similar language, meaning automatic launches 20 days after filing. However, given that the longest government shutdown was 35 days, XRP-spot ETF issuers may be hoping that the government reopens and the SEC greenlights the spot ETFs sooner.

Polymarket currently gives a 99% chance for an XRP-spot ETF approval in 2025.

The launch of HBAR, LTC, and SOL ETFs may disappoint traders awaiting XRP-spot ETFs. Nevertheless, XRP ETFs and XRP futures have shown impressive demand, suggesting the delay to spot ETF launches may not dampen appetite for spot ETFs once launched.

XRP’s outlook remains bullish, given the anticipated demand for spot ETFs.

Institutional Demand and Bullish Inflows

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently took a more bullish stance on first-month inflows into XRP-spot ETFs, stating:

“I may have been a little bearish. We’re going to hold to that number. If it hits that number, at least I’ll be right, and if it’s $10 billion, then I’m still right because we got at least $5 billion. If we saw that kind of inflow, I think it would definitely be in the top 20 ETFs of all time, if not in the top 10.”

Furthermore, Ripple’s ongoing expansion onto Main Street and the planned $1 billion XRP treasury reserve remain strong tailwinds. Notably:

• The rebranded Ripple Prime is expected to boost XRP utilization on Main Street.
• Ripple-backed Evernorth’s plans for a $1 billion-plus XRP treasury reserve.

Fed Policy in Focus Ahead of Senate Vote

While investors await the next Senate vote on Capitol Hill, the Fed could boost risk assets on Wednesday, October 29.

Markets predict a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, and a further 25-basis-point cut in December. Barring a surprise move, the focus will be on Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.

Powell is likely to support a December cut given pre-shutdown data signaling a weakening labor market. A dovish rate cut could lift demand for XRP, supporting a move toward $3.

With XRP currently ranked #4 by market cap, a dovish Fed rate cut and XRP-spot ETF launches could see XRP flip Tether (USDT) for the #3 spot.

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

XRP fell 0.44% on Monday, October 27, partially reversing the previous day’s 1.88% gain to close at $2.6340. The token tracked the broader crypto market, which dropped 0.53%.

Despite Monday’s loss, XRP remained above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the token continued trading below the 50-day EMA, signaling a near-term bearish bias.

The Fed’s decision and a Senate vote passing a stopgap funding bill could send XRP above the 50-day EMA, indicating a bearish trend reversal.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.62, $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
• Technical resistance level: the 50-day EMA at $2.6897.
• Technical support level: the 200-day EMA at $2.6124.
• Resistance levels: $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Coming Sessions

In the upcoming sessions, several events could dictate near-term price trends:

• The Fed interest rate decision and press conference.
• US-China trade talks.
• A US Senate vote.
• XRP-spot ETFs (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ appetite for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.62

• The Fed cuts rates, but Fed Chair Powell pours cold water over a December cut.
• BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• The US government shutdown extends, further delaying XRP-spot ETF approvals.
• The US Senate challenges crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies downplay plans to adopt XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could push XRP below the $2.62 level, bringing the $2.35 support level into play. If breached, $2.2 would be the next key support level.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3 Gains Traction

• The Fed cuts interest rates, and Fed Chair Powell signals a December rate cut.
• The US and China sign a trade deal.
• The US government reopens.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC greenlights XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies purchase XRP for treasury reserve purposes, and Main Street adopts Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill advances on Capitol Hill.

These bullish scenarios could send XRP toward $2.80. A sustained move through $2.80 would enable the bulls to target the $3.0 psychological level.

Outlook: Tailwinds Signal a Bullish XRP Trajectory

XRP’s near-term price trend hinges on Capitol Hill. Speculation about the imminent launch of XRP-spot ETFs could intensify if the Senate passes a stopgap funding bill.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s interest rate decision and President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi will also influence sentiment. Fed rate cuts and a US-China trade deal could help XRP reverse its current October loss of 7.26%.