Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Metals Stay Supported as Markets Shift to Fed Commentary

Market Overview

Gold and silver slipped modestly in early European trading as a rebound in global equities reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Wall Street’s strong overnight rally helped shift flows toward risk, prompting some investors to trim defensive exposure.

Precious metals still retain broader support from a softening Federal Reserve stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, but the immediate pullback reflected stronger appetite for equities.

A mild recovery in the US dollar also added pressure. The greenback bounced from a two-month low yet remains broadly weak as markets position for lower rates in 2025. The slight dollar rebound slowed momentum in gold and silver, though the underlying trend remains supported by expectations of easier policy.

Fed’s Policy Path Remains a Core Driver for Bullion

The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory remains the primary driver for bullion markets. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points this week and signaled no urgency to tighten again. Markets expect two rate reductions in 2025, reflecting slower labor-market data and easing inflation pressures.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to avoid policy overtightening, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs will drift lower. For non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, a lower-rate environment continues to reduce the opportunity cost of holding metals and supports their medium-term narrative.

Geopolitical Tensions Keep a Firm Floor Under Metals

Lingering geopolitical tensions continue to anchor safe-haven demand. Energy markets, shipping routes, and supply chains remain vulnerable to disruptions, prompting institutional investors to hold strategic allocations in gold and silver. This backdrop has helped limit downside despite heavier equity flows.

Market Turns to Fed Commentary for Next Catalyst

With no major US data releases on Friday, traders expect gold and silver to move primarily on Fed commentary and broader shifts in global sentiment. Analysts note that precious metals are likely to stay supported as long as policy expectations lean dovish and geopolitical risks remain unresolved.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may retest $4,299 resistance, with pullbacks toward $4,264 possible if momentum cools. Silver holds a bullish tone near $63.66, but failure at $64.26 could drag price toward $62.65.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $4,286, pressing into the $4,299–$4,333 resistance zone after a steady climb along the ascending trendline from late November. Candles show firm buying interest, with price holding above the 20-EMA, while the 100-EMA near $4,173 supports the broader uptrend.

The RSI is nearing overbought, signaling strong momentum but increasing the risk of a brief pause or pullback. A breakout above $4,299 would open the door toward $4,333 and $4,365. If bulls fail to clear resistance, price may retest $4,264, with stronger support at $4,224 along the trendline. A deeper drop could expose $4,173.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $63.66, holding firmly inside an ascending channel that’s guided price action since late November. Candlesticks continue to respect the mid-channel dotted trendline as support, with the 20-EMA rising beneath price and reinforcing short-term bullish structure.

Resistance sits at $64.26, where multiple rejections show sellers defending the upper boundary. A clean breakout above this level opens the path toward $65.66 and the channel top near $67.27. On the downside, immediate support is at $62.65, followed by stronger demand at $60.47.