XRP News Today: Bulls Eye Rebound Despite Slump in XRP-Spot ETF Flows

Weak XRP-spot ETF inflows and a cautious Fed outlook on rate cuts have triggered the latest slump in risk sentiment. Early institutional enthusiasm for XRP-spot ETFs has waned, with daily net inflows below $50 million for five consecutive days on Wednesday, December 10.

By contrast, demand for US BTC-spot ETFs has rebounded, exposing XRP to larger price volatility given the token’s status as a high beta altcoin.

Despite the post-Fed pullback, the short- to medium-term outlook remains bullish, with legislative developments on Capitol Hill key for demand.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

XRP-Spot ETF Inflows Stall as Fed Signals Single 2026 Rate Cut

The US XRP-spot ETF market saw net inflows of $10.2 million on Wednesday, December 10, up marginally from the previous day’s $8.73 million in net inflows.

Recent inflows have weighed on optimism about a surge in Main Street demand for XRP. Last week, Vanguard U-turned on crypto, opening the door for brokerage clients to access crypto-spot ETFs. However, inflows have weakened rather than soared, suggesting investor caution.

XRP has plunged 28.9% in the fourth quarter, with weakening institutional demand challenging calls of a bottoming out. However, buying demand at $2.0 has remained firm, suggesting a potential rebound and move toward the December 3 high of $2.22.

The Fed’s policy stance will likely be a key driver for near- to medium-term price trends. A larger-than-expected rise in US jobless claims fueled bets on a March Fed rate cut, lifting sentiment. Initial jobless claims increased from 192k (week ending November 29) to 236k (week ending December 6).

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a March Fed rate cut increased from 42.2% to 49.6% on the weaker labor market data. Rising bets on a March cut contrast sharply with the dot plot’s one rate cut projection for 2026.

Crucially, the absence of October’s inflation and jobs data from the US government shutdown exposes risk assets to increased volatility as US data releases resume. A cooling labor market and softer inflation would fuel demand for risk assets such as XRP. Thursday’s jobs data suggests labor market conditions are softening. A weaker labor market would curb wage growth and consumer spending, dampening demand-driven inflation.

Market Structure Bill Takes Center Stage

While Fed monetary policy and institutional demand are key price drivers, crypto-friendly legislation will likely have a greater impact price trends. The Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill continues to influence sentiment.

Crypto in America host and journalist Eleanor Terrett commented on the latest developments on Capitol Hill, stating:

“Senators are expected to hold a bipartisan meeting this morning to continue hashing out market structure negotiations. This afternoon, reps from several leading industry firms will head to the White House for a separate market structure meeting,”

Crucially, Democrats have reportedly accepted significant portions of the banking committee’s RFIA text. However, the aisle remains divided, with the December 4 GOP offer comitting key principles, including token classification, illicit finance, ethics, and the GENIUS Act’s stablecoin-yield restrictions.

Despite the progress, the recent US government shutdown poured cold water on hopes of the bill passing in December. Ongoing talks and the absence of a bipartisan-supported mark-up suggests an earliest Senate Floor vote in January 2026.

For context, XRP remains highly sensitive to crypto-related legislative developments despite the resolution to the SEC vs. Ripple case. The token soared 14.69% on Jul 17 and climbed to an all-time high of $3.66 on July 18 in response to the US House of Representatives passing the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. XRP has plunged 44.5% from its July ATH.

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Hinges on Spot ETFs and Capitol Hill

On Friday, December 12, traders should turn their focus to updates from Capitol Hill and the US XRP-spot ETF market. Several scenarios could shift market sentiment toward XRP, including:

• XRP-spot ETFs experience a sustained demand surge.
• The Market Structure bill gets bipartisan support.
• OCC grants Ripple a US-chartered banking license.

In my view, these potential events would support a near-term (1-4 weeks) rise to $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) climb to $2.5.

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook

While the short- to medium-term outlook remains bullish, several events could derail the outlook. These include:

• The Bank of Japan hikes rates, signals multiple 2026 rate hikes, and ends QE, triggering a yen carry trade unwind.
• The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings would likely reduce interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• US Senate challenges the Market Structure Bill.
• OCC rejects Ripple’s application for a US-chartered banking license.
• XRP-spot ETFs report heavy outflows.

These events would likely drag XRP below $2, exposing the November low of $1.82.

However, in my opinion, sustained XRP-spot ETF inflows, a broadening investor base, and progress toward crypto-friendly legislation support a longer-term move toward $3.

To summarize, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP fell 0.34% on Thursday, December 11, following the previous day’s 3.14% loss, closing at $2.0343. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which slipped 0.07%.

The second day in the red left the token below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias. While technicals remain bullish, fundamentals are increasingly outweighing the technical structure.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.2424.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4617.
• Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Avoiding a drop below the $2.0 psychological support level would pave the way to the 50-day EMA. A sustained break above the 50-day EMA would enable bulls to target $2.35. Significantly, a break out from the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would support a medium-term (4-8 weeks) climb toward the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 level.

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Interest, ETF Demand, and Legislation

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• Blue-chip companies’ views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• MSCI’s decision on DAT listings.
• The BoJ’s interest rate decisions and forward guidance.

Bullish Structure: What Happens if $2.0 Holds?

Holding above the trendline and $2.0 would open the door to retesting the $2.2 level and the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would align with the bullish medium-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.5 and longer-term (8–12 weeks) target of $3.0.

However, a drop below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.

Outlook: Holding $2.0 Support Key to Short-Term Outlook

XRP-spot ETF flow trends will set the stage for the Friday, December 12 session. A sharp pickup in demand would ease concerns about a more hawkish Fed policy stance, boosting demand for XRP.

However, updates from Capitol Hill on the Market Structure Bill will likely be key to the supply-demand balance. Crypto-friendly legislation would further legitimize the crypto market, broadening the investor base.

In summary, strong XRP-spot ETF inflows and progress toward crypto-friendly legislation support a short-term move to $2.35. Increasing XRP utility and a Senate vote passing the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the medium-term (4–8 weeks) target of $2.5 and the longer-term (8–12 weeks) target of $3.0.