US Dollar Index News: DXY’s Bullish Momentum Amid Global Economic Tensions
Highlights
- U.S. dollar touches 10-month high, driven by durable goods data.
- August’s durable goods order beats expectations, signaling growth.
- Yen under pressure; intervention concerns rise as it approaches 150/dollar.
- Euro and sterling weaken against the DXY’s recent strength.
- Potential U.S. shutdown poses risks; Moody’s warns of credit rating impact.
U.S. Dollar Soars Amid Economic Shifts
The U.S. dollar tested a 10-month high on Wednesday, influenced by the U.S. Census Bureau’s recent data that indicated a rise in manufactured durable goods orders for August. However, the strength of the dollar wasn’t uniformly echoed across sectors. While transportation’s influence appeared substantial, excluding defense-related orders showed a 0.7% drop, hinting at defense’s pivotal role in statistics. Machinery emerged as a bright spot, noting significant growth in recent months.
Economic Indicators Impacting Market Perception
Concerns loom regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown by October 1st. Moody’s recent warning about its potential negative impact on the U.S.’s credit rating, combined with President Biden’s urging for congressional action, adds to the investor apprehension. On a brighter note, August’s durable goods order defied expectations, showing growth instead of a predicted decline.
Currency Fluctuations Reflect Global Economic Trends
European currencies felt the weight of the dollar’s rise. The euro, in particular, dropped to its lowest since March, while sterling also experienced a slump.
Asian Markets and the Yen’s Struggle
The yen, affected by the surge in U.S. yields, dipped to an 11-month nadir. This depreciation has triggered alarms of possible intervention from Japanese authorities, particularly if it hits the 150 per dollar mark, historically a threshold of concern. Despite these challenges, any intervention might not permanently stabilize the yen-dollar equation unless bond yields reciprocate.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Short-Term Forecast
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has shown resilience in recent trading sessions, bolstered by optimistic economic data and the prospect of tightening monetary policies by the Federal Reserve.
In the short term, we anticipate the DXY to maintain its bullish momentum, particularly if U.S. economic indicators continue to outperform expectations and global uncertainties drive investors toward the relative safety of the dollar.
However, potential headwinds, including concerns about U.S. government fiscal policies and international trade tensions, could introduce volatility. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming economic releases and Fed statements, as these will play a pivotal role in determining the DXY’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.
Technical Analysis
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its upward trajectory, as evidenced by Wednesday’s test of the 10-month high at 106.488.
The current price surpasses both the 200-day moving average (103.077) and the 50-day moving average (103.595), signaling robust bullish momentum.
Notably, the 14-Day RSI at 74.79 indicates overbought conditions, which typically suggests potential retracement or consolidation in the near term.
While the DXY benefits from a cushion of support at 105.628, a stronger foundation is identified at the 50-day moving average level of 103.595.
A lack of defined trend line resistance indicates potential room for upward progression, yet traders should monitor the approaching minor resistance at 106.904. Given the data, the market sentiment leans bullish, but caution is advised due to the elevated RSI.
