XRP News Today: Traders Eye $3 as ETF Deadlines Approach

XRP Holds Key Support as XRP-Spot ETF Deadlines Loom

XRP traders brace for a pivotal three weeks as speculation about XRP-spot ETF approvals intensifies.

Six XRP-spot ETF issuers have final deadline decisions in October 2025, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, Grayscale, and WisdomTree. Franklin Templeton’s XRP-spot ETF has a final deadline of November 14, 2025.

Given the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case and the court ruling that XRP is not a security, traders expect the SEC to greenlight the spot ETFs.

Grayscale XRP ETF’s final deadline decision, slated for October 18, 2025, could be significant. The SEC may approve all seven spot ETFs on October 18 to prevent a first-to-market advantage, meaning all seven could launch on October 18 or 19.

For context, the SEC approved all 11 BTC-spot ETFs, allowing trading to commence on January 11, 2024, despite varying final decision deadlines.

Market Odds and Early ETF Flow Trends

Polymarket puts the odds of approval by year-end 2025 at 99%, up sharply from 64.6% on August 6.

The launches of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR), providing investors with exposure to XRP spot, and multi-crypto ETFs, coupled with the approval of the Generic Listing Standards (GLS) for commodity-based trust shares, has fueled expectations of the SEC approving the XRP-spot ETFs in October.

On their first trading day, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF and Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap ETF reported net inflows of $15 million and $22 million, signaling robust demand.

Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, commented on the first day of inflows, stating:

“All of them crush the avg ETF launch, altho far cry from bitcoin. Still, gotta be happy with that if you are those issuers.”

Notably, analysts expect the approved GLS to open the floodgates for more crypto-spot ETF filings, potentially fueling demand from Main Street.

BlackRock, Vanguard, and Competitive Pressures

Despite the upcoming final decision deadlines, BlackRock (BLK) has remained silent about its interest in launching an XRP-spot ETF. The listing of an iShares XRP Trust remains key ahead of the final decision deadlines.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have dominated the crypto-spot ETF market. The launch of an iShares XRP Trust, with similar success, could drive XRP to record highs. Demand for BTC–spot and ETH-spot ETFs sent BTC and ETH to record highs of $123,731 and $4,958 in August 2025, underscoring the influence of spot ETF demand on price trends.

Vanguard’s U-turn on giving investors access to crypto ETFs could become another price catalyst. The second-largest ETF issuer, by assets under management, may extend to launching its own crypto-spot ETFs to compete with BlackRock. An XRP-spot ETF filing by the two largest ETF issuers would be a mouth-watering prospect for XRP investors.

Traders should closely monitor BlackRock and Vanguard’s filings in the ETF space, given the potential impact on demand if either or both issuers list and trade XRP-spot ETFs.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Break Above $3 or Drop Below $2.7?

XRP rose 0.75% on Saturday, September 27, following the previous session’s 1.51% gain, closing at $2.8075.

The token outperformed the broader market (0%), moving toward the psychological $3 level. Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support: $2.7 and $2.5.
• Resistance: $3, $3.2, $3.335, and the all-time high at $3.66.

In the near term, several key scenarios could influence price action:

• XRP ETF flows.
• Spot ETF headlines: Approval or delays of XRP-spot ETFs and BlackRock and Vanguard’s stances on listing and trading XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies’ interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related developments may also influence sentiment.

Catalysts & Scenarios

The balance of ETF flow trends, regulatory headlines, and demand from blue-chip companies could determine whether XRP drops below support levels or breaks above resistance.

Bearish Scenario

• GDLC, BITW, and XRPR ETFs report low inflows or outflows, and BlackRock and Vanguard dismiss plans for XRP-spot ETFs.
• SEC redlights XRP-spot ETF applications.
• Delays or resistance to crypto-friendly regulations.
• Blue-chip companies show no interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains market share in global remittances, capping Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could drag XRP toward $2.7. A drop below $2.7 could expose the $2.5 support level.

Bullish Scenario

• BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report strong inflows.
• BlackRock and Vanguard list and trade XRP-spot ETFs, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies acquire XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• SWIFT loses market share of global remittances to Ripple.

These catalysts could send XRP toward $3. A break above $3 could enable the bulls to target $3.2.

Conclusion: October’s Pivotal Moment

Will speculation about a BlackRock and a potential Vanguard entry into the XRP-spot ETF race trigger a breakout?

Spot ETF demand will be crucial in the early days of trading if the SEC approves the spot ETFs. However, the Market Structure Bill’s progress on the Senate floor remains vital for the US crypto market and adoption.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory and economic risks influence the token’s price outlook in the coming weeks.