12 MPs and a Boris Johnson Lawsuit. The Tory Party Farce Continues

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Largely thanks to Brexit, there’s never a dull moment in British politics.

For the Conservative Party, however, it’s just going from bad to worse. Almost akin to the lead up to the U.S presidential elections, a reported 12 MPs have put their name in the hat to lead the Tories and a somewhat bewildered Britain.

Boris Johnson was favorite but, with a court summons hanging over his head, the last thing the Tory Party needs is bad press rolling into number 10.

The sheer number of MPs that have stepped forward to lead Britain out of the EU could ultimately deliver an underdog victory.

For the Pound, however, it’s less about the who and more about the why. Pro EU or Pro Brexit will ultimately dictate the direction of the Pound. A pro Brexiteer could see Britain edge ever closer to a no-deal departure from the EU.

 

General Elections

With the Theresa May’s successor expected to be in number 10 by the end of July, the chances of a resolution to the Brexit puzzle look slim.

A lack of progress could ultimately support calls from the opposition party and even the Liberal Democrats for a snap general election.

Following the local elections in April and last week’s EU parliamentary elections, the Tories are going to need to move quickly to avoid a being hurled out of office.

According to the latest UK government polls doing the rounds, the latest YouGov poll showed that the Liberal Democrats would win with 24% of the vote. Coming in second was the Brexit Party with 22%. For the Labour Party and Tories, they both received 19%.

There was only 1 previous instance where neither the Tories nor the opposition party occupied the top spot. (According to the latest YouGov report, in 19-years of YouGov general election polls).

Support for the LibDems has been on the rise since the EU Referendum. The Liberal Democrat’s anti-Brexit stance has found support from among a reported 66% of voters who would back a 2^nd EU Referendum.

While the Pro-remain LibDems came in 1^st, the Pro-Brexit, at any cost, Brexit Party came in 2^nd.

So, the polls continue to point towards a divided nation on Brexit. While divided on  Brexit, there’s far less division on the Tories.

The debate over whether a 2^nd referendum should take place may well continue for now. One debate that will begin to draw attention, however, will be on whether a general election should be called. Once Theresa May has been replaced, pressure will certainly build on May’s replacement to call an election.

As far as the Tories go, the last thing the new party leader would want is a general election. It could end up being one of the shortest terms as British Priminister in history. Until now, George Canning is the shortest service prime minister in history. He served just 119 days back in 1827…

For the Liberal Democrats and even the Brexit Party, the election would be a rerun of the EU Referendum. That is assuming, of course, that there is not a sudden resurgence of support for the Tories.

The Pound

With the Pound now hovering just above $1.25 levels, it could get messier before it gets better.

Down by 5.1% year-to-date, it’s certainly not the worst performing currency against the Greenback.

The uncertainty, however, and latest news trickling in of a material fall in UK car production raises the prospects of an economic slowdown to boot…

A quick end to the Conservative Party leadership race seems unlikely with 12 in the ring. More downside for the Pound is therefore likely, particularly if the economic indicators begin to flash red…

At the time, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.26118.