Ifo Institute Reveals: September’s German Business Climate Faces Headwinds

James Hyerczyk
Updated: Sep 25, 2023, 14:51 GMT+00:00

September's Ifo index hit 85.7, with the service sector's sixth decline and construction's worst sentiment since January 2009.

German ifo Business Climate


  • Ifo’s business climate index stands at 85.7 in September.
  • Service sector sees sixth continuous business climate dip.
  • Construction sentiment lowest since January 2009.

A Decline in Business Morale

September witnessed a dip in German business morale, as reported by the Ifo institute’s survey. Their business climate index settled at 85.7, slightly above the anticipated 85.2 as predicted by Reuters-analyzed experts. This marks a continued decline in sentiment, with the index falling from the previous month’s 85.8.

Sectoral Analysis: Manufacturing and Services

In the manufacturing sector, a modest rise was noted in the Business Climate Index. Firms expressed increased satisfaction with their immediate operations, though future expectations waned marginally. The slow decline in order books offered a hint of relief. Contrarily, the service sector experienced its sixth consecutive dip in business climate, attributed largely to the deteriorating present business conditions. Despite revenue trends softening compared to past months, there’s a hint of revived optimism for the future, albeit shrouded in skepticism.

Trade and Construction Perspective

Trade businesses displayed a brighter perspective, with the index noting an increase. This uptick was driven by less pessimistic future expectations. However, the satisfaction level with the current scenario dipped. The construction sector, on the other hand, painted a gloomy picture. The Business Climate Index for this sector plunged to its nadir since January 2009. Current evaluations took a hit, and the forthcoming months’ outlook remains strongly pessimistic.

Anticipated Market Movements

Taking into account the diverse sentiments across sectors, it appears the German economy may have hit its lowest point. While certain sectors like manufacturing hint at stability, the overall sentiment leans toward caution. In the short term, we anticipate a bearish trend, urging businesses and investors to brace for potential challenges ahead.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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