Private Sector PMIs Put the EUR and USD in Focus, with Trump in the Spotlight

Earlier in the Day:

It’s was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and the Japanese Yen were in action this morning.

For the Japanese Yen

September’s finalized Services PMI came in at 46.9, which was up from a prelim 45.6. In August, the PMI had fallen from 45.4 to 45.0.

According to the September survey,

• There were slower declines in activity and new orders. Export orders remained especially subdued, however.
• A continued decline in new business led to a further fall in staffing numbers.
• Outstanding new business also continued to decline.
• Business sentiment improved. In spite of another downward trend in new business and output, business sentiment turned positive in September.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥105.538 to ¥105.555 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.28% ¥105.58 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

Business confidence was in focus in the early part of the day. The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from -8 to -4 in September. In August, the Index had risen from -14 to -8.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71851 to $0.71860 upon release of the report. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.25% to $0.7179.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.6643.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats included September service sector PMIs for Italy and Spain and retail sales figures for the Eurozone.

Finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are also due out.

Barring dire numbers, the Eurozone’s retail sales figures should have a muted impact on the day. Consumer spending figures from both France and Germany were positive last week.

Expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to be the key drivers.

This is assuming no marked downward revisions to France and Germany’s PMIs. Service sector activity remains key to economic recovery near-term.

Ultimately, however, expect any further updates on U.S President Trump’s health and Brexit to drive the EUR.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.1724.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include finalized service and composite PMIs for September.

Expect the Pound to be sensitive to any revisions.

Away from the economic calendar, however, Brexit will remain an area of key interest. High-level talks from Saturday led to a 1-month extension to Brexit negotiations, which will resume this week.

The intent to find an agreement should provide the Pound with support at the start of the week.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.03% to $1.2939.

Across the Pond

It’s also a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include September’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and finalized Markit survey service and composite PMIs.

Expect the ISM numbers to have a greater influence on the day.

Away from the economic calendar, updates on Trump’s health, and from Capitol Hill on the COVID-19 relief Bill also provide direction.

News of Trump briefly leaving the hospital to wave at supporters overnight supported riskier assets early on. This came after doctors had announced that the president may be released later today.

The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.09% to 93.761 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a quiet day ahead, with no economic data due out to provide the Loonie with direction.

Market risk sentiment will continue to be the key driver on the day.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.17% to C$1.3285 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.