AUD/USD Elliott Wave: Triangle Half-Way Completed

Current Elliott Wave Analysis

Our previous analysis offered a primary and alternative wave count. Now that some time has passed, we are able to focus on the higher probability wave count.

Zooming out on the daily AUD/USD chart indicates the current Elliott wave count is wave ((b)) of a bullish zigzag. Wave ((b)) appears to be carving a triangle pattern that Aussie is a little more than halfway through.

Aussie has been running into trend line resistance holding it down twice (see blue arrows). The trend line dates back to October 2022 and after this triangle completes, I would anticipate a break higher above the trend line.

It appears the wave (c) of the triangle is complete with the current rally noted as wave (d). Then, a short dip in wave (e) to finish the triangle. Once the triangle completes, then a bullish breakout and rally could carry AUD/USD towards 65 to 66 cents.

AUD/USD pricing should hold above .6186 under this forecast. In the unexpected event of a print below .6186, we’ll need to reassess the wave count.

Bottom Line

It appears AUDUSD is in the middle of an ((a))-((b))-((c)) zigzag advance. The current wave ((b)) is shaping as a triangle that may need a few days in April to finalize. Once the triangle is complete, a bullish rally may carry AUDUSD towards 65 to 66 cents.

Key Levels for Bullish Bias: Must hold below .6186

Initial Target: .6500 – .6600