AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNY – Asian Session Daily Forecast
AUD/USD has started the new trading week with a whimper. In Asian trade on Monday, the pair is trading at 0.6776, up 0.10% on the day. It was a rough week for the Aussie, which slipped 1.6%. This marked the sharpest weekly decline for the currency since late July. Will we see any improvement this week?
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis
With no major Australian events this week, U.S. data will have a magnified effect on the movement of the pair. However, these numbers won’t be published until late in the week, with the release of U.S. Final GDP and durable goods reports. This could result in the Australian dollar trading sideways until Thursday.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD displayed sharp volatility last week and broke through a couple of support lines. I don’t expect to see a repeat this week, although further volatility cannot be completely ruled out.
The line of 0.6805, which remained relevant last week, is currently an immediate resistance line. If the pair tests this line, it will still be in a resistance area, with the next resistance line just around the corner, at 0.6839. This line appears safe for now. On the downside, the pair touched 0.6760 last week but failed to break through. It is a weak line which could face pressure if the Aussie loses ground.
USD/CNY has started the new trading week with slight gains. In Monday’s Asian session, the pair is trading at 7.111, up 0.29%.
There are no major Chinese events this week, so traders will have to keep an especially close eye on key U.S. releases later this week. This week’s highlight is U.S. Final GDP, the third estimate of GDP in the second quarter. Analysts expect this release to confirm the second estimate of 2.0%. If this forecast is not accurate, we could see movement from the pair. I expect the yuan to trade sideways early this week.
USD/CNY Technical Analysis
The Chinese yuan was range-bound last week, but has started the Monday session with an upward thrust. The pair has tested resistance at 7.110. This line has held since September 12, and the dollar could push higher if it can break above this line. Above, there is major resistance at 7.1700. On the downside, there is support just below 7.600, at 7.0592.
NZD/USD is flat in early Monday trade. In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 0.6266, down 0.01% on the day. The pair is coming off a rough week, falling 1.8%. How badly is the NZ currency doing? The pair touched a low of 0.6255, its lowest level since September 15. If the pair continues to fall, we could see new multi-year record lows.
Investors Eye RBNZ Rate Move
All eyes will be on the New Zealand central bank, which will set the benchmark rate on Wednesday. In August, the bank surprised the markets with a sharp rate cut of 50 basis points, lowering the rate to 1.00%. Analysts had expected a smaller cut of 25 basis points. The bank is expected to maintain rates this time around, but a dovish rate statement could trigger losses for the stumbling NZ dollar.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
NZD/USD fell 1.8% last week, and broke below support at 0.6280 late in the week. This line has been a tough nut for the pair to crack, as it has held firm since September 3. It’s still too early to tell if the pair can continue to push lower, or will it retract and climb back across this line. Below, there is support at 0.6240. On the upside, the next resistance line is 0.6360.