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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – November 5, 2015 – Forecast

Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gained 16 points to trade at 0.7202 after retail sales met expectations and the trade balance printed better than expected.  The Australian dollar has recovered from its overnight weakness at the hands of a US dollar boosted by speculation about a Federal Reserve interest rate rise.

Australian retailers have continued their recent solid performance, with sales increasing 0.4 per cent in September. The seasonally adjusted result was in line with expectations and follows another 0.4 per cent rebound in August after sales fell in July.

However, on an annualized basis sales growth slipped back marginally to 3.6 per cent. AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver said the figures showed consumer spending was continuing to make an OK, but not a strong, contribution to September quarter GDP growth. Spending on household goods rose 1 per cent with electrical equipment up 2.2 per cent.

Australia’s international trade performance beat expectations, with the deficit narrowing to $2.3 billion in September from $2.7 billion in August.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

2.800M

 

4.100M

 

 

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q3)

-0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

 

 

  NZD

 

Unemployment Rate (Q3)

6.0%

6.0%

5.9%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

-2.317B

-3.000B

-2.711B

   

  CNY

 

Caixin Services PMI (Oct)

52.0

50.8

50.5

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Stanley Fischer 

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)

 

1.0%

-1.8%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Economic Bulletin  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

 

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

262K

260K

 

 

  USD

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

2.3%

-1.4%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Stanley Fischer 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks 

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 03 10:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Nov 04 15:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Nov

Nov 04 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 10 Nov

Nov 05 09:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Nov 05 09:50 France Auctions OATs

Nov 05 10:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Nov 09 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 11 Nov

Nov 09 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 12 Nov

Nov 09 N/A US Holds 3-year note auction

Nov 10 10:30 UK 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt auction

Nov 10 N/A Holland Eur 2.0-3.0bn 0% Apr 2018 DSL

Nov 10 N/A US Holds 10-year note auction

Nov 11 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 11 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Nov 11 10:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Nov 12 10:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Nov 12 10:30 UK 4.25% 2039 Gilt auction

Nov 12 N/A US Holds 30-year bond auction

 

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