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AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis August 27-31, 2012 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Jan 1, 2011, 00:00 GMT+00:00

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis August 27-31, 2012 Forecast

Introduction:  The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD ended the week, down, at 1.0404 after such a positive start just the week before the Aussie was firmly in the 1.05 level looking to make 1.06 when it just fell apart. Even with the weak USD, the AUD could not make headway this week

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Aug 24, 2012

1.0404

1.0433

1.0443

1.0376

-0.28%

Aug 23, 2012

1.0433

1.0508

1.0545

1.0422

-0.71%

Aug 22, 2012

1.0508

1.0468

1.0518

1.0414

0.37%

Aug 21, 2012

1.0469

1.0450

1.0520

1.0449

0.19%

Aug 20, 2012

1.0449

1.0436

1.0469

1.0426

0.12%

There was little data in OZ except for some very positive comments from Glenn Stevens, director of the RBA.

The Chinese HSBC data seems to be weighing very high on the Aussie as the Australian economy, in fact the entire region is dependent on its trade with China.

This coming week we will see housing and construction data, hopefully showing positive growth.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Major Economic Events for the week of August 20-24, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 21 

NZD

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.3%

 

2.4% 

Aug. 22

JPY

Trade Balance 

-0.33T

-0.46T 

-0.32T 

 

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.47M

4.52M 

4.37M 

Aug. 23

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

47.80

 

49.30 

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

372K

365K 

368K 

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3317K

3300K 

3313K 

 

USD

New Home Sales 

372K

365K 

359K 

 

NZD

Trade Balance 

15M

33M 

287M 

Aug. 24

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-.04 

0.5% 

-1.4% 

 

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

4.2 

2.4% 

1.3% 

Historical:

Highest: 1.1080USDon Jul 27, 2011

Average: 0.9126 USD over this period

Lowest: 0.6007USD Oct 27, 2008

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Aug. 28

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

65.9 

 

02:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

5.5% 

Aug. 29

23:45

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

5.7% 

 

00:50

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.2% 

 

02:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-2.5% 

Aug. 30

02:30

AUD

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

6.1% 

Aug. 31

00:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.6% 

 

00:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4% 

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