Bitcoin and US Stocks Correlation Returns Amid Tech Earnings Season

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has climbed to +0.70, marking its strongest alignment with U.S. equities since mid-April, according to TradingView data.

Bitcoin Rises Alongside Tech Stocks

On April 30, the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.10%, buoyed by robust earnings from major technology firms such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Amazon. Bitcoin tracked this rally closely, gaining nearly 2.12% to almost $96,400 as of May 1.

However, recent economic indicators have raised concerns about a potential U.S. recession. The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% annually in Q1 2025, the first decline since early 2022, driven primarily by a surge in imports ahead of newly implemented tariffs.

Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 45%, up from 35%, citing factors such as trade policy uncertainties and weakening economic indicators.

Many traders fear that a U.S. recession could negatively impact cryptocurrencies.

I am shorting Bitcoin to $55k from here.

TRUMP will send us into a recession.

This is a dead cat bounce.

Top is in.

— Joshua Jake (@itzjoshuajake) April 22, 2025

However, there’s a bullish counterweight.

On May 1, traders grew more convinced that the Federal Reserve would cut its benchmark rate twice by July, lowering it to a target range of 3.75%–4%, down from the current level.

According to CME FedWatch, the probability of such a move rose to 58.90%, up from 44.30% a week earlier.

If rate cuts arrive as expected, they may help offset some recessionary pressures, offering Bitcoin a path to decouple, not from equities, but from outright economic contraction.

Bitcoin Must Hold Above $91,300 To Avoid Bearish Phase

Beyond correlations, technical and on-chain models provide critical context for Bitcoin’s momentum.

The 111-day moving average (111DMA), a widely tracked technical metric, currently sits at $91,300, while the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis stands at $93,200, according to Glassnode.

Bitcoin’s recent price surge above both these levels reflects strong bullish momentum. Historically, when BTC breaks and holds above these thresholds, it signals a transition into a bullish market regime.

Conversely, a rejection and drop below these levels would return many investors to meaningful unrealized losses and risk reigniting bearish sentiment.

Maintaining price support above the $91,300–$93,200 zone is therefore critical.

A decisive hold would reinforce bullish confidence, while a breakdown could drag Bitcoin back into a bearish phase, regardless of what’s happening in equities or macro policy.