Bitcoin Fights for Survival In A Parabolic Bull Market
Bitcoin was trading in a tight range of around $57k on Thursday morning despite major crypto assets being lower. Based on technical indicators, Bitcoin’s downside is capped at $53k, which suggests buyers will remain active towards $60K resistance.
As part of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, strong dollar amid reports of an Indian Crypto ban trading volumes continue to decline. Although some analysts expect volatility to increase as November draws to a close in the bitcoin and ether options markets
Prices could move sharply over the next few days due to rising volatility, which could discourage buyers from holding onto positions for an extended period of time.
Whales deposit Bitcoins at exchanges. Curiously, the exchanges have continued to outflow money, which has resulted in the reserves remaining near their lowest levels since mid-2018.
In a report somewhat contradictory, Glassnode said long-term holders may not be spending as much as they were and are therefore more likely to be adding to positions than exiting them.
There are two confluences on the chart from a technical perspective: the first is the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, and the second is the trendline that dates back to March 2020 and serves as support.
Once the level is successfully backtested as support, it is possible that the uptrend will resume. On the other hand, the 50-day MA (*$60.6K), as well as $60K, seem to be the main immediate resistance levels.
Bears might still have some runway left due to the constant trading volume during this correction. This calls for caution.
As the RSI is making higher lows on the 4-hour chart, there are signs of bullish divergence, even though the RSI is falling on the daily time frame (but hasn’t reached oversold conditions yet). In order to confirm it, Bitcoin must hold above $53K and rise meaningfully.