Bitcoin Price News: BTC Inflows Turn Positive But Price Action Favors Drop Below $100K

Bitcoin (BTC) has gone up by nearly 5% in the past 7 days, as the crypto market recovered its composure this week ahead of today’s inflation report.

Just minutes ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its September inflation data. Prices climbed by 3% in the past 12 months across the United States. The figure came in 10 basis points below the market’s consensus estimate for the period.

This is a positive report as it shows that President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies have had a limited impact on price dynamics, at least for now.

It could also fully assure the market that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rates as expected during next week’s FOMC meeting.

Lower rates favor a bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) and for cryptos as a whole, especially at a point when the U.S. dollar is plummeting as a result of the country’s ongoing government shutdown.

Net Inflows to BTC ETFs Turn Positive But OI Remains Depressed

Hourly candle charts show a positive reaction from market participants right after this inflation report came out. Nonetheless, market sentiment remains sour amid the uncertainty that Trump introduced to the mix following his decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imported goods.

Net inflows to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) turned positive this week. Until yesterday, these vehicles had brought in $356 million, according to data from Farside Investors. Although this is a minor figure in relative terms, it is an early indication that last week’s selling spree could be easing.

Bitcoin Futures Open Interest (OI) – Source: CoinGlass

Despite these positive signs, traders don’t seem to be ready to jump back into the boat, as open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures remains low from a historical standpoint.

When expressed in BTC, which helps reduce the impact of price volatility from the metric, OI has declined from a peak of 755,000 BTC to 641,560 BTC at the time of writing, meaning a 15% drop.

If ETF inflows climb significantly today after this positive inflation report, and trading volumes pick up, the odds favor a bullish outlook for the top crypto. A strong increase in OI would also confirm this positive view, as it will indicate that sentiment is improving.

For now, the Fear and Greed Index still stands at a low level of 32, meaning that investors are fearful and cautious about the future. Interestingly, low readings like these have actually marked a short-term bottom rather than predicting further drops.

BTC Hits Key Trend Line Support from Below

The daily chart shows that BTC broke below a long-dated trend line, nearing the $103,000 level at some point on October 17. The price has recovered since it touched that mark, and has now retested this former trend line support from below.

BTC/USD Daily Chart (Bitstamp) – Source: TradingView

This is a relevant technical event that could help traders determine where BTC will be heading next. If the token rejects a move above $113,000 decisively (strong volumes), it will confirm a bearish outlook for Bitcoin, no matter how sentiment is.

The reason for this is that the price action would be confirming that buying pressure is weak at this level, meaning that the market has run out of fuel to push prices higher.

Bulls already tried to recapture this level on October 21 and failed. If they fail again, BTC could drop below $100,000 in the near term.

Can this positive inflation report do the trick? It will largely depend on how the weekend goes.