Can the S&P500 Reach Around 3770 before Moving to 4000?

A little over a week ago, see here, I showed

“… the S&P500 has reached its symmetry breakout target of SPX3950”

and,

“… my detailed Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count has the index complete a 3^rd wave, and … wave-4 will be underway … to SPX3770-3670. Once the correction is over we should expect SPX4200s before the next larger correction, possibly a much larger top of the Super Cycle degree will commence.”

Fast forward, and the index topped that same day (February 16) when my article was posted. It is currently trading at SPX3850s. Thus a 100p loss since.

Figure 1. S&P500 hourly chart with technical indicators and horizontal support/resistance levels.

The market is in a C-wave.

Corrections, in EWP-terms, always consist of at least three waves: a wave-a down (aka the initiation move), followed by a wave-b up (aka the dead cat/oversold bounce), and then a final wave-c down. The hourly chart of the S&P5000 in Figure 1 above shows the index completed most likely (grey) wave-a on Tuesday, (grey) wave-b yesterday, and should now be in (grey) wave-c to end (green) wave-4 at ideally around SPX3770+/-10p. Essentially the pattern so far looks similar to the January correction: (grey) wave-iv. It bottomed at SPX3694 on January 29. Hence, it appears also February is ending on a weak note, with the index so far only having progressed 2.0% YTD. Not yet the raging Bull everybody thinks it is.

Regardless, so far, the current correction is still a typical “run-of-the-mill” 3-5% correction: nothing out of the ordinary and even relatively healthy. Once this C-wave completes, I expect a strong rally to ideally SPX4185+/-10p for (green) wave-5 of (red) wave-iii. From around that level, we should expect another correction: (red) wave-iv back to -ideally the green 100% Fib-extension (SPX3925+/-10), etc.: see red dotted arrow path. But before we look around too many corners, let’s first focus on the current correction. A move back above yesterday’s high will signal it has ended and the run to ideally SPX4185, though it can stall at SPX4085, is underway.