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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 27, 2015- Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 26, 2015, 11:50 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil is flat today ahead of US EIA numbers, but last night’s API inventory declines were ignored by traders. Oil is

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 27, 2015- Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 27, 2015- Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – August 27, 2015- Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is flat today ahead of US EIA numbers, but last night’s API inventory declines were ignored by traders. Oil is trading at 39.39 while Brent Oil added 20 points to 43.41 as Saudi Arabia ignores the price declines and continues to pump record oil amounts. The mammoth production from the US and the appreciating US dollar will continue to put downward pressure on US WTI crude oil prices. The record production from Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq would continue to drag Brent crude oil lower. The long-term oversupply concerns and slowing demand estimates could put pressure on crude oil prices.

WTI is the US benchmark for crude oil prices. WTI is priced at Cushing, Oklahoma—the delivery point for NYMEX crude oil futures contracts. WTI is the receiving price of oil producers in the US. In contrast, Brent crude oil is the global benchmark for crude oil. Brent crude oil represents the receiving price of international crude oil producers.

The rising spread between WTI and Brent means that US crude oil refiners pay less to buy crude oil—compared to the international refiners. This benefits US refiners. The narrowing spread means that US oil producers sell crude oil prices equivalent to international oil producers. This benefits US oil producers.

Crude’s multi-year price lows have so far failed to trigger a production cut by top producers though Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh on Sunday endorsed holding an emergency OPEC meeting and said it could be effective in stabilizing prices.

Algeria made a similar call earlier this month but other OPEC delegates said no meeting was planned.

Zanganeh also said Iran would defend its oil market share with increased production.

“We will be raising our oil production at any cost and we have no other alternative” Zanganeh said. “If Iran’s oil production hike is not done promptly we will be losing our market share permanently.”

Money managers increased their bets on a rebound in Brent prices according to data from the InterContinental Exchange showing increased net long positions after four weeks of net sales.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

-7.300M

1.900M

-2.300M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Jul)

-649M

-750M

-194M

   

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Jul)

-2,690M

-2,660M

-2,850M

 

 

  AUD

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q2)

1.6%

-1.5%

-0.8%

   

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgages  

 46.0k

46.0k

44.8k

   

brent oil wed
 
crude oil wed

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

 

-2.5%

-4.4%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Aug)

 

3.1%

3.5%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Aug)

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

 

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  RUB

 

Central Bank reserves (USD)

 

 

362.9B

 

 

  USD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

 

3.2%

2.3%

 

 

  USD

 

GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)  

 

2.0%

2.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

274K

277K

 

 

  USD

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

1.0%

-1.8%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 26 11:10 Italy Eur 3bn 0.15% Aug 2017 CTZ

Aug 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year FRN note auction

Aug 26 12:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Aug 26 19:00 US Holds 5-year note auction

Aug 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Aug 27 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% I/L Jun 2019, Sek 0.5bn 1% Jun 2025 bonds

Aug 27 19:00 US Holds 7-year note auction

Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

 

 

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