Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis June 30, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil added 9 cents to trade at 105.93 while Brent Oil added 20 cents after suffering major declines on Thursday. The weak US dollar helped make the commodities more attractive. Slightly worse than expected US consumer spending figures for May, more stable situation in Iraq (in a sense that Iraqi army seems to have contained Sunni rebels movement towards Baghdad and the south of the country) and news about higher crude oil production (about 300 thousand barrels per day) and reopening of Hariga oil port in the eastern part of Libya have weighed on Brent which is therefore set to post the largest weekly loss since January. Yesterday, the front-month contract on Brent (ICE) settled at 113.21 USD/bbl, i.e. at the lowest settlement-level in two weeks.

Nevertheless, notwithstanding the low likelihood of an expansion of the fights in Iraq to the south, the increased level of uncertainty may continue to prevent oil prices from falling more significantly in the weeks to come.

Brent headed for the first weekly drop since violence erupted in Iraq amid speculation that oil output would remain safe in OPEC’s second-biggest producer. West Texas Intermediate was steady in New York. Brent gained 3.6 percent in June as fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant captured the northern city of Mosul and advanced south toward Baghdad. Iraq pumped 3.3 million barrels a day of crude last month, trailing only Saudi Arabia in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Iraq’s crude exports will accelerate next month, Oil Minister Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi said on June 25.

WTI crude inventories expanded by 1.74 million barrels last week to 388.1 million, the EIA, the U.S. Energy Department’s statistical arm, reported on June 25. A 1.7 million decrease had been projected in a separate Bloomberg survey.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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Economic Data June 26, 2014 actual v. forecast

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Country 

Jun 30 09:00 Norway

Jul 01 09:30 Belgium

Jul 01 09:30 UK

Jul 01 15:30 UK

Jul 02 09:30 Germany

Jul 03 00:30 Japan

Jul 03 08:30 Spain

Jul 03 08:50 France

Jul 03 10:00 Norway

Jul 03 15:00 US