Crude & Brent Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 13-17, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: 

Crude Oil recovered its deep losses early on Friday but still ended the week on the downside sliding 20 cents on Friday along and closed the week at 85.59 while Brent Oil tumbled 23 cents at the end of the week to close at a near term low of 89.82. West Texas Intermediate crude pared the biggest weekly drop since January amid signs of a global glut. Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, gained after reaching a four-year low in intraday trading.

WTI closed yesterday more than 20 percent below its June peak, a common definition of a bear market. Brent is down 22 percent from the June high. Both crudes settled higher for the first time in four days after falling more than 2 percent during trading today.

 Oil cartel OPEC kept its world oil demand growth projections unchanged for 2014 and 2015 on Friday, as global economy forecasts remained stable going into next year. The estimates were issued as the price of oil continues to fall because of gloomy sentiment on the market about prospects for economic growth, notably in the eurozone.

World demand will grow by 1.05 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 91.19 mbpd this year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its latest monthly report. For 2015, the cartel predicted demand to reach 92.38 mbpd, again unchanged from its previous forecast.

Growth was mainly supported by China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, where consumption was on the up, despite dips in Europe and other countries of the OECD region, OPEC said in its report.

It also cited unchanged OECD forecasts on the world economy to explain its stable oil demand predictions. Meanwhile, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia told OPEC it raised its oil production in September by 100,000 barrels per day, adding to signs it has yet to respond to a drop in prices well below $100 a barrel by trimming output.

In a monthly report issued on Friday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said Saudi Arabia reported September production of 9.704 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 9.597 million in August.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest:  110.55 on Mar 01, 2012

Average: 93.60 over this period

Lowest: 74.95 on Oct 04, 2011

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Upcoming Major Economic Events for the week of Oct 13-17, 2014