Crude & Brent Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis March 17 – 21, 2014 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

 

Crude Oil closed the week out on a low note at 98.69 while Brent Oil  gained to trade at 108.14. The price of oil rose Friday on concerns that tensions could rise in the Russia-Ukraine situation with this weekend’s referendum on Crimean secession. But oil still finished the week down more than 3 percent, largely because traders are concerned about the strength of demand from China.

China is one of the top consumers of energy, so an economic slowdown there could dial back demand for oil. “The energy complex has morphed into a trade where Chinese economic releases will be a strong determinant of near term oil price direction,” wrote Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Jim Ritterbusch and Associates, in a note to clients.

At the same time, Russia is one of the top producers of oil worldwide, meaning that any Western sanctions against Moscow for its military incursion into the Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula could affect global supplies.

The West braced Friday for a vote by the Crimean Peninsula to secede from Ukraine – and likely be annexed by Russia – as the last attempt for diplomacy broke down despite threats of costly international sanctions and other imminent penalties against Moscow for forcibly challenging a pro-European government in Kiev.

Global supplies rose by 600,000 barrels a day in February to 92. 81 million barrels a day, led by a jump in OPEC crude output, the IEA Oil Market Report for March said Friday. The report raised its estimate for global oil demand in 2014 to 92.7 million barrels a day, 95,000 barrels a day more than its projection made last month, as the macroeconomic backdrop improves.

Emerging markets, despite their recent volatility, are forecast to provide the majority of this growth, with non-OECD Asia accounting for roughly half of the gain. The uncertainty of Ukraine also supported crude prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest:  110.55 on Mar 01, 2012

Average: 93.60 over this period

Lowest: 74.95 on Oct 04, 2011

 

 

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Major Economic Events for the week of March 10-14 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, and USD

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP and the USD

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Mar 17 10:00

Mar 17 10:00 Slovakia

Mar 18 01:30 Japan

Mar 18 09:30 Spain

Mar 19 10:30 Germany

Mar 19 10:30 Portugal

Mar 20 09:30 Spain